Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:11:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xcecf…df51 crypto 641 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 10d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (278 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$4,558 (+3%) realized +$4,558 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate60%547W / 368L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$233per market
Trades / day278.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 10d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$286
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (278 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-36.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 746 -35.2% -41.4% 53% 30% -23.3%
≤30d 915 -29.3% -36.0% 60% 30% -20.4%
≤90d 915 -29.3% -36.0% 60% 30% -20.4%
all 915 -29.3% -36.0% 60% 30% -20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover278.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -36.0% 30% -20.4%
10% ← realistic here -42.1% 6% -28.0%
15% -47.7% 2% -35.0%
20% -52.8% 1% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -0% → late -58% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$84 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4,558
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses547 / 368
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)915 / 641
History coverage10d ⚠
Avg bet$233
Trades / day278.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 915 Trades
no open positions (319 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $143 −$143 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $69 −$69 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $136 −$136 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $120 −$120 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $89 −$89 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $69 −$69 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $68 −$68 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $89 −$89 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $123 −$123 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $74 −$74 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $166 −$166 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $123 −$123 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $74 −$74 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 17 $68 −$68 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $92 −$92 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $125 −$125 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $209 −$209 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $178 −$178 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $161 −$161 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $89 −$89 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $123 −$123 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $226 −$226 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $183 −$183 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $141 −$141 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $84 −$84 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 17 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $74 −$74 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $89 −$89 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $167 −$167 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $13 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $19 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $6 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $0 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $6 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $3 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $6 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $62 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $97 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $97 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $88 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $71 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $79 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $91 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $99 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $97 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $96 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $98 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $90 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $96 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $82 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $82 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $80 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $89 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $35 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records