Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:02:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xced1…91bc crypto 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (84 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$270 (-12%) realized −$270 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -55% what you keep after slip
Net edge-55%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%9W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day84.0pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$1,081
other 1% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (84 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-47.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -41.9% -47.5% 35% 35% -54.6%
≤30d 26 -41.9% -47.5% 35% 35% -54.6%
≤90d 26 -41.9% -47.5% 35% 35% -54.6%
all 26 -41.9% -47.5% 35% 35% -54.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover84.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -47.5% 35% -54.6%
10% ← realistic here -52.5% 31% -58.9%
15% -57.1% 23% -62.9%
20% -61.3% 23% -66.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -50% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -64% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$89 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$270
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses9 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage1d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day84.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 26 $216 −$210 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 26 $154 −$150 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 26 $259 −$250 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 26 $101 −$98 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 26 $77 −$75 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 26 $182 +$157 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 26 $129 −$125 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 26 $205 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 26 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 26 $77 −$75 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 26 $131 +$68 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 26 $129 +$40 +31%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 26 $52 −$19 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 26 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 26 $103 +$58 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$28 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$8 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$20 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 25 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$23 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 98 history records