Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:53:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xced2…b74d sports 162 markets active 2h ago coverage 171d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$87 (-9%) realized −$81 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%59W / 96L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days+$81
14 days+$67
30 days+$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$73
crypto 34% −$50
other 4% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +74.4% +57.7% 47% 47% +27.0%
≤30d 62 +40.0% +26.7% 45% 45% +4.7%
≤90d 133 +8.7% -1.7% 40% 40% -8.8%
all 155 -0.2% -9.7% 38% 38% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 38% -20.6%
10% -18.4% 37% -28.2%
15% -26.3% 36% -35.2%
20% -33.5% 31% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late +25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

171d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$81
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses59 / 96
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions7
Markets (closed)155 / 162
History coverage171d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 155 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner FUT Esports 40¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 82 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $5 +$6 +126%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $7 +$16 +223%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $5 +$2 +43%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $9 +$17 +194%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $6 +$3 +48%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 16 $6 $0 -8%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 16 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -17%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 16 $5 $0 -5%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $4 +$5 +132%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $3 −$1 -22%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $8 −$8 -98%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $5 +$10 +188%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$7 +65%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -24%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 +$12 +235%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +36%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $11 −$11 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$6 +58%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $5 +$7 +145%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $4 +$4 +101%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 +$5 +91%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO7) - MPL Ind Jun 14 $9 +$25 +276%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $7 +$9 +121%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $5 +$8 +149%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $5 +$11 +213%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $5 +$5 +89%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $4 +$6 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -97%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $3 −$3 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $4 +$4 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$4 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$4 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 06 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 06 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 40¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner SELL 100 Thieves 95¢ $12 2h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner BUY 100 Thieves 41¢ $5 2h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Yakult Brothers 99¢ $23 2h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 30¢ $7 3h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL illwill 86¢ $7 3h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 59¢ $5 3h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Yakult Brothers 99¢ $25 3h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 33¢ $9 5h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner SELL ex-RUBY 80¢ $9 6h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner BUY ex-RUBY 53¢ $6 6h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $6 6h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 34¢ $6 6h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu BUY HyperSpirit 11¢ $3 6h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 6h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 6h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu BUY HyperSpirit 35¢ $5 7h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin BUY Team Refuser 33¢ $2 7h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Refuser 36¢ $2 7h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit - Map 2 Winner SELL HyperSpirit 99¢ $9 7h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Refuser 38¢ $3 8h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner BUY Rooster 39¢ $2 8h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit - Map 2 Winner BUY HyperSpirit 42¢ $4 8h
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner SELL Grey Trac 28¢ $2 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.76 · official $10.76 (match) · 263 history records