Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:28:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xced3…10d1 crypto 157 markets active 3h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,880 (+20%) realized +$2,918 · open −$38
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate52%81W / 75L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$72est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$617now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,716
7 days−$1,499
14 days−$1,496
30 days−$1,496
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$258
sports 16% +$550
crypto 10% +$23
world 7% −$116
politics 6% +$1,647
finance 0% +$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -47.8% -52.7% 24% 18% -33.0%
≤30d 18 -45.1% -50.3% 28% 17% -31.5%
≤90d 98 -28.3% -35.2% 35% 23% +5.9%
all 156 -3.2% -12.5% 52% 38% +7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 38% +7.3%
10% -20.8% 28% -2.9%
15% -28.5% 18% -12.3%
20% -35.5% 15% -20.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +19% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +18% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$35 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.91 per $1 lost it wins $1.91
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$617
Realized+$2,918
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses81 / 75
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$72
Open positions1
Markets (closed)156 / 157
History coverage119d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 156 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $655 $617 −$38 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lazio win Coppa Italia? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Nottm Forest be relegated from the English Premier League after t Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Hellas Verona FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-24? Jun 23 $117 −$117 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Jun 23 $148 −$148 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? Jun 23 $1,458 −$539 -37%
Will Athletic Club vs. CA Osasuna end in a draw? Jun 23 $361 −$361 -100%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-04-22? Jun 23 $138 −$138 -100%
Will Girona FC vs. Real Betis Balompié end in a draw? Jun 23 $201 −$201 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Jun 23 $972 −$493 -51%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-04-20? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $244 +$301 +123%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $497 +$172 +35%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $881 −$122 -14%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $548 +$162 +30%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $184 +$6 +3%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 $0 -1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $388 +$2 +1%
Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $11 −$4 -39%
Will Real Betis Balompié vs. Real Oviedo end in a draw? May 03 $13 −$5 -39%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? May 03 $266 +$59 +22%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $410 +$426 +104%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $164 +$94 +57%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. West Ham United FC end in a draw? Apr 20 $353 +$47 +13%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Lille OSC vs. OGC Nice end in a draw? Apr 18 $29 +$9 +30%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-04-16? Apr 16 $380 +$459 +121%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Apr 15 $500 +$1,080 +216%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-04-13? Apr 13 $758 +$84 +11%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-04-13? Apr 13 $176 −$31 -18%
Will Burnley FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw? Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Olympique Lyonnais vs. FC Lorient end in a draw? Apr 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Levante UD vs. Getafe CF end in a draw? Apr 13 $392 +$2 +1%
Will Levante UD win on 2026-04-13? Apr 13 $428 +$38 +9%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $120 −$22 -18%
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? Apr 11 $383 +$1,035 +270%
Will Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? Apr 10 $310 +$548 +177%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Apr 08 $20 −$7 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Apr 08 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Apr 08 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Apr 08 $50 −$14 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Apr 08 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Apr 08 $45 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Apr 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Apr 08 $6 +$6 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Apr 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Apr 08 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Apr 08 $26 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $124 2h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $257 3h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $74 4h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $193 4h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 4h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 5h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 5h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 5h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 5h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $11 5h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 5h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 5h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 5h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 5h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $8 5h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $30 5h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 5h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $29 5h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $100 5h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 5h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 5h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 5h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 5h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 5h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 5h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 5h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 5h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 5h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 5h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $616.53 · official $616.53 (match) · 940 history records