Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:27:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CE 0xced9…0151 world 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 454d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate40%14W / 21L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% $0
other 29% +$4
finance 5% $0
politics 5% $0
sports 3% $0
tech 3% $0
culture 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.8% -8.8% 33% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 18 +0.3% -9.3% 39% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 18 +0.3% -9.3% 39% 0% -8.9%
all 35 +0.5% -9.1% 40% 0% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 0% -9.0%
10% -17.8% 0% -17.7%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.6%
20% -33.0% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.45 per $1 lost it wins $3.45
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

454d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses14 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage454d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $37 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $12 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 22 $38 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 21 $16 +$1 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $12 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $45 +$1 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $32 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $3 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $48 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $48 +$2 +4%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 02 $30 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $18 −$2 -9%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $61 +$1 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $2 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $35 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 28 $32 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $30 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $30 $0 +0%
Will Flamengo win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 11 $1 $0 +6%
Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30? Dec 11 $10 $0 +2%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2025 French Open? Jun 03 $1 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? May 08 $2 $0 +1%
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? May 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Apr 19 $16 $0 -0%
Will Zellnor Myrie win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Ci Apr 18 $10 $0 -0%
Will Rumble buy TikTok? Apr 18 $11 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Apr 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will Malik Beasley win 2024-25 NBA 6th Man of the Year? Apr 14 $11 $0 +3%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 100,000-200,000 betwe Apr 13 $11 $0 -0%
Will Trump impose tariffs on Denmark in the first 100 days? Apr 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? Apr 11 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Apr 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Hideki Matsuyama win The 2025 Masters? Apr 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Roger Stone in his first 100 days? Apr 07 $11 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 58¢ $37 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 58¢ $37 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 18h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $10 18h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 19h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 19h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $3 25h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 45h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 45h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 46h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $17 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $16 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $12 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $12 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $17 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $13 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $18 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $11 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $4 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $26 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $32 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $35 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $32 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $28 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $4 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 101 history records