Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:00:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xcedd…0dd4 sports 183 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$116 (-7%) realized −$116 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate39%71W / 112L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day52.9pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$133
14 days−$123
30 days−$123
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% +$23
sports 31% −$62
other 15% −$41
world 4% −$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 164 -11.0% -19.4% 38% 32% -17.0%
≤30d 183 -11.2% -19.6% 39% 33% -16.2%
≤90d 183 -11.2% -19.6% 39% 33% -16.2%
all 183 -11.2% -19.6% 39% 33% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.6% 33% -16.2%
10% ← realistic here -27.3% 28% -24.2%
15% -34.3% 23% -31.5%
20% -40.8% 15% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$116
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses71 / 112
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)183 / 183
History coverage8d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day52.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 183 Trades
no open positions (57 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 23 $82 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 23 $52 −$39 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 23 $71 +$34 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 23 $66 +$6 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 23 $56 −$4 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 23 $166 +$39 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 23 $63 −$6 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 23 $8 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 23 $19 −$5 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 23 $21 $0 -1%
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $5 −$4 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 23 $67 −$23 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$3 +12%
England leading at halftime? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 23 $82 +$8 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 23 $67 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 23 $16 +$10 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -94%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $5 +$2 +34%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $15 −$5 -34%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $5 $0 +3%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $5 −$1 -21%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $1 +$2 +149%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -64%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $5 +$1 +22%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $16 +$1 +8%
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $5 $0 +2%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $25 +$5 +19%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $10 −$1 -12%
Norway vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $1 $0 -2%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 23 $1 +$3 +341%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $10 +$2 +16%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $15 −$1 -3%
France vs. Iraq: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $10 −$1 -12%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $1 $0 -12%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $1 $0 -47%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $4 +$2 +39%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $5 $0 -5%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $4 −$1 -17%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $4 −$1 -32%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 +$1 +20%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $3 $0 +8%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $2 +$1 +26%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $3 +$3 +109%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? Jun 22 $2 +$4 +188%
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 2 Egypt? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $26 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $10 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $63 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $31 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $31 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $13 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $11 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $31 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $14 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $10 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $90 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $31 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $50 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $50 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $22 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $16 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $71 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 461 history records