Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:20:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
CE 0xcedf…8a60 politics 130 markets active 2h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate9%11W / 118L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$173per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$11
politics 30% −$7
sports 15% +$9
crypto 4% −$1
economics 3% −$1
tech 2% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 19 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 92 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 129 +1.3% -8.3% 9% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 5% -9.6%
10% -17.1% 5% -18.2%
15% -25.1% 4% -26.1%
20% -32.4% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×9.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses11 / 118
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)129 / 130
History coverage130d
Avg bet$173
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 100¢ 100¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $27 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $206 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 15 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 15 $22 $0 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 14 $165 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $145 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $616 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $16 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $360 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $22 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $29 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $150 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $139 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 27 $162 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $277 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $180 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $164 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $145 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $147 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $163 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $170 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $185 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $176 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $164 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 19 $131 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 18 $184 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 17 $168 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 16 $168 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 16 $167 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $130 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $166 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $429 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $136 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $177 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $186 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $156 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $164 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 17 $178 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $156 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $542 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $167 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $152 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $358 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $188 $0 +0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 14 $140 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $342 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $179 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 13 $174 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Apr 13 $137 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $168 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $28 1h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $27 45h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $27 2d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $18 2d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $18 6d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $22 6d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 6d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $22 6d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $22 7d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $21 7d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $21 15d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $17 18d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $17 18d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $31 18d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $31 19d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $16 19d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $16 19d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $16 19d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $16 19d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $22 20d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 21d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 21d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 22d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $150 22d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $150 24d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $139 24d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $139 24d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $162 25d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $162 25d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $146 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.99 · official $27.99 (match) · 367 history records