Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T16:55:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xcee3…e851 crypto 105 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (59 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$2 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate46%48W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day58.7pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$121now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$478
7 days−$485
14 days−$524
30 days−$524
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% −$491
sports 24% +$56
world 2% −$94
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (59 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 -26.4% -33.4% 49% 42% -25.6%
≤30d 104 +15.9% +4.8% 46% 41% -22.9%
≤90d 104 +15.9% +4.8% 46% 41% -22.9%
all 104 +15.9% +4.8% 46% 41% -22.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover58.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.8% 41% -22.9%
10% ← realistic here -5.2% 37% -30.3%
15% -14.4% 29% -37.0%
20% -22.8% 22% -43.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +60% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$26 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$121
Realized−$2
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses48 / 56
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)104 / 105
History coverage10d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day58.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Down 51¢ 48¢ $127 $121 −$6 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 24 $109 −$105 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 24 $66 +$43 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 24 $135 −$130 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 24 $59 −$57 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 24 $38 −$37 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 24 $52 +$22 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 24 $19 −$3 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 24 $83 +$33 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 24 $134 +$50 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 24 $64 −$62 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 24 $29 −$28 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 24 $46 +$23 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 24 $72 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 24 $39 +$15 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 24 $67 +$20 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 24 $37 −$36 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 24 $45 +$12 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 24 $37 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 24 $79 +$38 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 24 $31 −$22 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 24 $99 +$81 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 24 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 24 $34 −$33 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 24 $57 +$55 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 24 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 24 $62 +$50 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 24 $36 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 24 $47 −$10 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 24 $33 −$10 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 24 $20 +$7 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 24 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 24 $35 −$32 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 24 $46 −$44 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 24 $31 −$7 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 24 $24 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 24 $29 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 24 $30 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 24 $28 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 24 $24 +$8 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 24 $30 +$9 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 24 $31 +$18 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 24 $43 +$23 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 24 $41 −$26 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 24 $30 +$15 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 24 $35 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 22m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $120.77 · official $120.77 (match) · 611 history records