Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:38:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
CE 0xcee4…c188 other 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 371d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$38 (+5%) realized +$38 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate41%11W / 16L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% +$1
world 37% +$4
tech 9% $0
economics 8% $0
finance 5% $0
politics 3% +$34
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)+6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 9 +1.2% -8.4% 44% 0% -8.3%
≤90d 9 +1.2% -8.4% 44% 0% -8.3%
all 27 +18.2% +6.9% 41% 4% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.9% 4% -4.2%
10% -3.3% 4% -13.4%
15% -12.7% 4% -21.7%
20% -21.2% 4% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 86% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +37% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$0 · ×22.48 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×35.32 per $1 lost it wins $35.32
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

371d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses11 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage371d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 58¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $38 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $39 +$2 +5%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 26 $35 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $33 +$2 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $32 $0 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $33 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 21 $33 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $34 $0 -1%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jul 03 $3 $0 -0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 50,000-100,000 betwee Jul 03 $5 $0 -1%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jul 03 $55 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jul 03 $5 $0 -7%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on August Jul 03 $7 $0 -0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 03 $53 $0 -0%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between -1% and -2%? Jul 03 $55 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Jul 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? Jul 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Mercedes be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jul 02 $79 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Jul 01 $56 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Jun 28 $15 +$1 +8%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 27 $7 +$34 +470%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli finish second in the 2025 Drivers Champions Jun 12 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2600 and $2700 on June 11 at 5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $38 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $38 3h
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 21d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 21d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $26 22d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $9 22d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $3 22d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $32 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 70¢ $28 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 70¢ $8 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $33 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $12 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $12 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $28 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $5 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 95¢ $32 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 98¢ $26 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 98¢ $7 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 98¢ $15 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 98¢ $18 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $33 27d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $33 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $21 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $12 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $6 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $29 27d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $5 27d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $28 27d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $34 27d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 54¢ $35 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 100 history records