Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:09:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xcee5…d8ac other 156 markets active 1h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2,408 (-1%) realized −$2,406 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate26%41W / 114L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,215per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$357now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$21
14 days−$159
30 days−$200
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 48% −$112
other 35% +$247
sports 13% −$2,558
culture 2% −$5
economics 1% −$1
world 1% −$12
crypto 1% +$2
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 40 -4.3% -13.4% 8% 2% -9.8%
≤90d 94 -10.7% -19.2% 6% 2% -11.7%
all 155 +1.8% -7.9% 26% 10% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 10% -10.7%
10% -16.7% 10% -19.2%
15% -24.8% 10% -27.0%
20% -32.1% 6% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,558) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$31 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$357
Realized−$2,406
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses41 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions1
Markets (closed)155 / 156
History coverage143d
Avg bet$1,215
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 155 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 99¢ 98¢ $359 $357 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 17 $868 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 17 $836 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $874 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $2,089 −$3 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $726 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $3,440 −$4 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $2,091 −$3 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $4,699 −$5 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $749 −$1 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1,175 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $5,470 −$6 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $921 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $1,152 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $966 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,209 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $2,060 −$3 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $3,866 −$5 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $58 −$58 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 06 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $1,113 −$2 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,279 −$2 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,265 −$3 -0%
Will XRP reach $1.80 in May? Jun 02 $359 $0 +0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $938 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $1,020 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 01 $539 +$1 +0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $1,810 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $3,505 −$6 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $3,100 −$3 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $857 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $2,002 −$3 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $552 −$1 -0%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-23? May 25 $62 −$62 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 5.5 May 23 $42 +$56 +134%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $619 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $3,334 −$4 -0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2026 World Series? May 21 $416 −$1 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 21 $667 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $1,128 −$2 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $1,227 −$2 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $1,314 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $2,364 −$3 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $7,559 −$9 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $1,128 −$2 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 09 $3,049 −$3 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $1,318 −$2 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 09 $1,339 −$2 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 08 $1,230 −$1 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,428 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $2,860 −$4 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $867 51m
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $868 1h
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $835 6h
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $836 8h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $873 23h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $874 26h
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $772 27h
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $774 30h
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $726 2d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $726 2d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $712 2d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $713 2d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $733 2d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $735 3d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $872 3d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $873 3d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $747 4d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $749 4d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 99¢ $360 4d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,174 7d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,175 7d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,188 7d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,190 7d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $920 7d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $921 8d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,151 8d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,152 8d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $965 8d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $966 9d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,207 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $357.41 · official $357.41 (match) · 512 history records