Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:40:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xcee9…8e38 other 511 markets active 0h ago coverage 187d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$302 (+0%) realized +$277 · open +$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate81%408W / 98L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$215per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$50est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$175now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$74
7 days+$868
14 days+$790
30 days+$793
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% +$303
tech 7% +$12
crypto 6% −$8
sports 5% +$648
weather 3% +$6
politics 2% −$758
culture 0% $0
world 0% −$11
economics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 +8.2% -2.1% 52% 48% +13.8%
≤30d 96 -5.0% -14.0% 54% 31% +9.2%
≤90d 198 -0.9% -10.4% 76% 16% -5.6%
all 506 -0.3% -9.8% 81% 6% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 6% -9.4%
10% -18.4% 5% -18.1%
15% -26.3% 5% -26.0%
20% -33.5% 3% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 43% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$19 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

187d coverage
Net worth$175
Realized+$277
Unrealized+$25
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses408 / 98
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions5
Markets (closed)506 / 511
History coverage187d
Avg bet$215
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 506 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 60¢ $50 $59 +$9 (+19%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Yes 40¢ 100¢ $11 $29 +$17 (+150%)
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Matias Soto Santiago De La Fuente 35¢ 38¢ $21 $23 +$1 (+6%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 9¢ $17 $16 −$1 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Blois: Clara Burel vs Despina Papamichail Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $49 −$45 -92%
Asuncion 2: Eduardo Ribeiro vs Juan Manuel La Serna Jun 17 $49 +$18 +36%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $51 +$56 +110%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$60 +119%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$36 +71%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $20 −$8 -43%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$25 +50%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $49 +$19 +40%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $49 +$15 +31%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 $0 -1%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $72 $0 -0%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$8 +42%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9 −$3 -28%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $49 −$9 -18%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $58 −$19 -32%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $30 +$15 +51%
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco Jun 14 $50 +$32 +62%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $48 +$95 +198%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $49 +$7 +15%
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut Jun 14 $49 +$27 +54%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $50 +$31 +62%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $104 −$56 -54%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $29 −$29 -100%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $17 +$1 +6%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $44 +$6 +13%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $9 +$46 +511%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $46 +$69 +149%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $56 +$22 +38%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$7 +76%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) Jun 14 $21 +$5 +24%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $50 +$22 +44%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $49 +$27 +55%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $49 +$25 +50%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Veronika Erjavec Jun 13 $48 +$52 +109%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic Jun 13 $44 −$44 -100%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron Jun 13 $99 +$10 +10%
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Mannarino (+1.5) Jun 13 $51 −$29 -58%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler Jun 13 $327 −$45 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 9m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 9m
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL Portugal 4¢ $4 14m
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Matias Soto BUY Santiago De La Fuente 35¢ $22 41m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $11 52m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $10 52m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $10 52m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $10 53m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $10 53m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $12 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 45¢ $39 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 46¢ $10 1h
ITF Blois: Clara Burel vs Despina Papamichail BUY Clara Burel 78¢ $49 1h
Asuncion 2: Eduardo Ribeiro vs Juan Manuel La Serna BUY Juan Manuel La Serna 73¢ $49 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 47¢ $9 12h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 47¢ $31 12h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 47¢ $10 12h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $10 14h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $12 14h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $10 14h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $19 14h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 15h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 15h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 15h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 15h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 15h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 15h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 15h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 23¢ $11 15h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $10 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $175.37 · official $176.43 (match) · 1308 history records