Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:18:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xcee9…68fb sports 146 markets active 1h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$802 (-31%) realized −$688 · open −$114
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate21%15W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$913now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$62
7 days−$602
14 days−$702
30 days−$702
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$979
sports 35% +$163
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 +11.5% +0.8% 24% 24% -50.2%
≤30d 72 -4.0% -13.2% 21% 21% -53.6%
≤90d 72 -4.0% -13.2% 21% 21% -53.6%
all 72 -4.0% -13.2% 21% 21% -53.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 21% -53.6%
10% -21.5% 21% -58.1%
15% -29.1% 21% -62.1%
20% -36.0% 21% -65.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -49% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -46% → late +38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$21 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$913
Realized−$688
Unrealized−$114
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses15 / 57
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions67
Markets (closed)72 / 146
History coverage76d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 67 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $195 $165 −$30 (-15%)
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $145 $140 −$6 (-4%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $129 $94 −$35 (-27%)
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 24¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 30¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 12¢ 8¢ $14 $10 −$4 (-30%)
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+9%)
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-5%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$49 +473%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $5 +$28 +549%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 +$7 +139%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 −$3 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $5 +$8 +156%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $72 −$57 -79%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $103 −$25 -24%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$30 +291%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$25 +250%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$35 +344%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$136 +1320%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$25 +250%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$21 +206%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Morocco? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 0 Switzerland? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-06? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 3 Morocco? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-09? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Peru vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will France vs. Northern Ireland end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 14 $132 −$35 -26%
Will Peru win on 2026-06-08? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC win on 2026-05-15? Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC win on 2026-05-23? Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Honduras win on 2026-06-06? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Wuhan San Zhen FC win on 2026-05-20? Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Henan FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 14 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Qingdao Hainiu FC win on 2026-05-15? Jun 14 $49 −$49 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY 27¢ $2 45m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 56m
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2 BUY 1¢ $1 59m
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026- BUY 7¢ $1 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-1 BUY 2¢ $1 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina BUY 5¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $59 20h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 100¢ $0 20h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $0 20h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 20h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 20h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 21h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 21h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 21h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 21h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 21h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 21h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 21h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 21h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 21h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 100¢ $33 21h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $12 21h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 24h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 24h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $5 24h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 15¢ $5 24h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $19 24h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 34h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 34h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $912.69 · official $918.79 (match) · 301 history records