Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:31:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CE 0xceea…ec81 sports 194 markets active 1h ago coverage 280d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$242 (+2%) realized +$258 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate72%126W / 50L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$1,049now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$336
7 days−$312
14 days−$235
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$299
other 22% −$248
tech 15% +$168
world 2% +$3
finance 1% −$5
culture 1% +$27
crypto 0% −$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -9.3% -17.9% 63% 53% -24.9%
≤30d 91 +8.8% -1.6% 71% 67% -9.1%
≤90d 161 +8.4% -2.0% 71% 65% -8.1%
all 176 +9.1% -1.3% 72% 64% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.3% 64% -7.7%
10% -10.8% 56% -16.6%
15% -19.4% 39% -24.6%
20% -27.3% 23% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$32 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

280d coverage
Net worth$1,049
Realized+$258
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses126 / 50
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions15
Markets (closed)176 / 194
History coverage280d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 176 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 72¢ $200 $184 −$16 (-8%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 72¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 63¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 63¢ 71¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+13%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 76¢ 74¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs PlayTime 81¢ 80¢ $45 $44 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 44¢ 42¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-6%)
Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs Team Nemesis (+1.5) PlayTime 51¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Americ Jun 17 $64 +$16 +24%
Game Handicap: LGD (-1.5) vs Lindorfitos (+1.5) Jun 16 $35 +$10 +29%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$14 +48%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $35 −$35 -99%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Jun 16 $35 +$15 +42%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $30 +$17 +55%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 15 $25 +$10 +42%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $335 −$333 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $25 −$21 -84%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Close Jun 15 $100 +$10 +10%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $35 −$13 -38%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $401 +$24 +6%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $25 +$13 +50%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 14 $25 −$25 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $25 −$25 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $25 +$15 +60%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $251 +$20 +8%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $25 +$15 +59%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $30 +$8 +27%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $25 +$11 +44%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $25 +$13 +50%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $25 +$14 +57%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $30 +$10 +34%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $30 +$6 +21%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $25 +$19 +76%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $30 +$10 +34%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $20 −$10 -50%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $7 −$7 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $20 +$15 +76%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $30 +$11 +36%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 09 $30 +$13 +44%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $20 −$20 -99%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $30 +$10 +32%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $20 +$22 +109%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $30 +$15 +50%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $120 +$17 +14%
Game Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs LGD Gaming (+1.5) Jun 07 $25 +$9 +36%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 07 $25 +$16 +65%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $25 +$10 +38%
Map Handicap: BIG (-1.5) vs NRG (+1.5) Jun 06 $15 +$13 +87%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $50 +$9 +18%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $35 −$35 -99%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $25 +$18 +71%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $20 −$9 -45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs Team Nemesis (+1.5) BUY PlayTime 51¢ $10 1h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South Ameri BUY PlayTime 81¢ $45 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 8h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 8h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 76¢ $35 19h
Game Handicap: LGD (-1.5) vs Lindorfitos (+1.5) BUY LGD Gaming 77¢ $35 23h
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Americ BUY PlayTime 80¢ $64 24h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 64¢ $30 28h
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 30h
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European BUY KOLESIE 70¢ $35 31h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 79¢ $50 44h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 79¢ $101 46h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $119 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 10¢ $4 2d
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Close SELL Vici Gaming 100¢ $110 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $50 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $30 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $25 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 88¢ $100 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AN BUY 30¢ $26 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $25 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 2d
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Close BUY Vici Gaming 91¢ $100 2d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series BUY TDK 80¢ $35 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 61¢ $25 2d
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY BetBoom Team 70¢ $25 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $115 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 1¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,049.07 · official $1,074.08 · 364 history records