Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:10:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CE 0xceed…f8ee sports 171 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 22d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (154 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3,537 (+2%) realized +$3,282 · open +$255
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate54%97W / 82L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,291per market
Trades / day153.7pace
Fees−$5,518est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$5,878now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 22d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$245
other 11% +$2,012
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (154 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)+1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 +25.8% +13.9% 56% 31% -10.4%
≤30d 179 +12.5% +1.8% 54% 18% -10.7%
≤90d 179 +12.5% +1.8% 54% 18% -10.7%
all 179 +12.5% +1.8% 54% 18% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover153.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.8% 18% -10.7%
10% -8.0% 17% -19.3%
15% ← realistic here -16.9% 17% -27.1%
20% -25.0% 14% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$1,548) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late +18% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
11.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$156 vs −$236 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$5,878
Realized+$3,282
Unrealized+$255
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses97 / 82
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$5,518
Open positions4
Markets (closed)179 / 171
History coverage22d ⚠
Avg bet$1,291
Trades / day153.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 179 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $3,150 $3,124 −$26 (-1%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Over 71¢ 72¢ $1,454 $1,464 +$10 (+1%)
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Spirit 45¢ 46¢ $781 $790 +$9 (+1%)
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 47¢ 99¢ $239 $500 +$261 (+109%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 18 $566 −$566 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 18 $0 $0 -104%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 8 to May 15, 2 Jun 18 $703 −$703 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Will White House post 180-199 posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 18 $93 −$93 -100%
Will White House post 180-199 posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 18 $95 −$95 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - CS Asia Championship Jun 18 $1,589 −$1,591 -100%
Map Handicap: FaZe (-1.5) vs NRG (+1.5) Jun 18 $620 −$620 -100%
Will White House post 200+ posts from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 18 $312 −$312 -100%
Will White House post 180-199 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs MIBR (+1.5) Jun 18 $252 −$252 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $3,412 +$120 +4%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $171 +$2 +1%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 17 $1,825 +$25 +1%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $13 $0 +2%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,600 +$40 +2%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $2,292 +$30 +1%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $2,058 +$31 +2%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,130 $0 -0%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $3,827 +$69 +2%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $2,650 $0 -0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $12,655 +$175 +1%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $3,600 $0 +0%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1,330 $0 +0%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $50 +$50 +101%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $4,588 −$43 -1%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2,120 $0 -0%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $675 $0 -0%
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $1,470 +$1,047 +71%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $559 +$691 +124%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $304 +$262 +86%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 15 $531 +$265 +50%
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $4,961 +$102 +2%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $825 −$825 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $537 +$461 +86%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $507 −$499 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $969 −$969 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1,548 +$921 +60%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $808 +$501 +62%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 13 $502 −$497 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $375 +$375 +100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $414 −$408 -99%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 13 $560 +$440 +79%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $705 −$696 -99%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5) Jun 13 $103 −$101 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $4,472 +$12 +0%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $3,488 +$63 +2%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $827 +$1,872 +226%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $3,450 +$50 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $134 44m
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $7 45m
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $7 45m
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 45m
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 45m
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $7 46m
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $2 46m
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 46m
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 46m
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $8 47m
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $6 47m
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 47m
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $0 48m
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $4 48m
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $8 48m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 53¢ $784 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 76¢ $102 2h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 76¢ $3 2h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 76¢ $49 2h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 76¢ $20 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 54¢ $2 3h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 54¢ $4 3h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 54¢ $10 3h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 54¢ $1 3h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 54¢ $1 3h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 54¢ $2 3h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 54¢ $3 3h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 54¢ $1 3h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 54¢ $1,000 3h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 54¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,878.48 · official $5,878.48 (match) · 3500 history records