Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:08:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xcef0…b585 sports 220 markets active 7h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$38 (+0%) realized +$38 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate69%148W / 67L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$80est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$52
14 days+$72
30 days+$62
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$4
other 2% −$15
world 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +17.1% +6.0% 81% 62% +1.1%
≤30d 81 +10.3% -0.2% 74% 62% -7.2%
≤90d 176 +0.0% -9.5% 69% 52% -9.2%
all 215 -1.4% -10.8% 69% 51% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 51% -9.6%
10% -19.3% 33% -18.2%
15% -27.1% 23% -26.1%
20% -34.2% 15% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$15 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized+$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses148 / 67
Est. fees paid−$80
Open positions2
Markets (closed)215 / 220
History coverage145d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 215 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 71¢ 70¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 74¢ 74¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 17 $16 +$1 +5%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 17 $18 −$3 -16%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$5 +110%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $13 +$1 +9%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $7 +$1 +14%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $7 +$5 +74%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $7 +$2 +29%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $5 +$1 +22%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 +$5 +95%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $23 +$8 +32%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $63 +$20 +32%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $17 −$17 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $22 −$22 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $10 +$1 +13%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $40 +$2 +5%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $98 +$3 +4%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $8 +$6 +84%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $23 +$13 +55%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $40 +$20 +51%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $11 +$5 +43%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $25 +$12 +50%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $9 +$3 +31%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $13 +$10 +78%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $11 +$6 +53%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $6 +$4 +69%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $14 +$1 +4%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $11 +$4 +39%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $8 +$4 +58%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $5 +$5 +100%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Russia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $9 +$5 +53%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 04 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $16 −$8 -49%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $11 +$8 +70%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 03 $7 +$4 +52%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 03 $6 +$2 +37%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 02 $11 +$2 +14%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $7 +$10 +133%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $5 +$2 +34%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 02 $9 +$1 +15%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $13 −$13 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $7 +$5 +79%
Counter-Strike: NIP vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 30 $28 +$3 +11%
Counter-Strike: magic vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 30 $21 −$10 -47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 74¢ $15 7h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 71¢ $41 7h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 56¢ $1 8h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 55¢ $4 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 47¢ $5 25h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 44¢ $5 44h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL FUT Esports 27¢ $15 47h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 20¢ $3 47h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 25¢ $10 47h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL FUT Esports 12¢ $4 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL FUT Esports 12¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL FUT Esports 12¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL FUT Esports 12¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 4¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 12¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 21¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 6¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 24¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 24¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 11¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 18¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 18¢ $0 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 29¢ $9 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 38¢ $4 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 34¢ $8 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 34¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 34¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 19¢ $7 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 27¢ $9 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 20¢ $7 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.08 · official $59.98 · 1053 history records