Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:00:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xcef2…e052 crypto 191 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (58 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$41 (+1%) realized +$41 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate68%130W / 61L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day58.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days+$11
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (58 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 155 +0.3% -9.3% 70% 9% -9.2%
≤30d 191 +0.2% -9.3% 68% 8% -9.3%
≤90d 191 +0.2% -9.3% 68% 8% -9.3%
all 191 +0.2% -9.3% 68% 8% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover58.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.3% 8% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 2% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$41
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses130 / 61
Open positions0
Markets (closed)191 / 191
History coverage9d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day58.1
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 191 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $40 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$6 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $40 −$6 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$8 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$4 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $40 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $40 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$7 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$6 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $40 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$9 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$4 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$6 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $40 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $40 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$3 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $23 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $20 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $22 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $20 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $14 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $7 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $13 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $22 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $20 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $14 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $20 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $19 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $11 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $8 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $13 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $20 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $20 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $8 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $6 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $6 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $21 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $20 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $22 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $12 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 505 history records