Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:21:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
CE 0xcef5…cf2c world 91 markets active 1h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$742 (-6%) realized −$1,352 · open +$610
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate48%34W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$141per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$10,162now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$36
7 days−$234
14 days−$1,466
30 days−$1,416
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$1,364
tech 38% +$354
politics 14% +$230
other 2% −$15
finance 1% −$46
crypto 1% +$18
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -52.7% -57.2% 33% 33% -88.3%
≤30d 15 -31.9% -38.4% 40% 40% -70.2%
≤90d 52 -14.1% -22.3% 48% 44% -57.1%
all 71 -12.5% -20.8% 48% 44% -53.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.8% 44% -53.0%
10% -28.4% 32% -57.5%
15% -35.3% 17% -61.6%
20% -41.7% 11% -65.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -53% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$45 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$10,162
Realized−$1,352
Unrealized+$610
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses34 / 37
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions20
Markets (closed)71 / 91
History coverage118d
Avg bet$141
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 85¢ 93¢ $3,195 $3,512 +$317 (+10%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 90¢ $2,064 $2,061 −$3 (-0%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 82¢ 99¢ $1,500 $1,826 +$326 (+22%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $1,490 $1,499 +$9 (+1%)
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 94¢ 92¢ $900 $886 −$14 (-2%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $105 $98 −$7 (-7%)
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? No 87¢ 98¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+12%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 81¢ 86¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+7%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No 79¢ 78¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? No 86¢ 97¢ $40 $45 +$5 (+13%)
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by June 30? No 85¢ 98¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+15%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes 63¢ 22¢ $54 $18 −$36 (-66%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 84¢ 90¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026? No 87¢ 92¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? No 88¢ 90¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 39¢ 37¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 70¢ 70¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 42¢ 56¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+32%)
Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes 28¢ 16¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-42%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 96¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $51 −$36 -71%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 20 $18 +$2 +13%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $1,024 −$1,024 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -14%
Iran closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $518 −$202 -39%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the Jun 04 $15 +$4 +27%
Will Moderates be part of the next Government of Denmark? Jun 04 $31 +$4 +13%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $52 +$26 +51%
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? Jun 01 $82 +$18 +22%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 01 $51 +$17 +33%
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026? May 26 $5 −$5 -87%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $52 −$13 -26%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $100 +$23 +23%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 23 $50 +$12 +23%
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30? May 23 $1 +$1 +65%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $1 $0 +30%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? May 23 $1 $0 +3%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 20 $47 −$8 -18%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 19 $52 −$6 -11%
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $1 $0 -27%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31? May 16 $96 −$96 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? May 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? May 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? May 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? May 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? May 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 16 $22 +$7 +33%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 16 $100 +$23 +24%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 4? May 04 $26 −$5 -20%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? Apr 30 $10 +$2 +21%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 30 $50 +$12 +23%
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by April 30? Apr 25 $1 −$1 -59%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Apr 23 $1 $0 -40%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $0 +$2 +429%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $1 +$2 +168%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $2 $0 +15%
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $2 $0 +5%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30? Apr 19 $1 −$1 -60%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? Apr 16 $2 +$1 +64%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 02 $30 +$6 +19%
Will Iran claim responsibility for Oslo Embassy attack? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 22? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? Apr 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 24? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31? Apr 01 $5 +$2 +33%
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $10 +$3 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 BUY No 79¢ $50 57m
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $900 1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $1,499 26h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $34 26h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 19¢ $15 42h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 53¢ $200 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $4 7d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL No 59¢ $4 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $18 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No $10 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 78¢ $884 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 70¢ $104 10d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 63¢ $5 10d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $316 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $2,080 10d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $13 11d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $2,090 11d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 24¢ $107 11d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $99 18d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 83¢ $419 18d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $524 19d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 81¢ $1,008 19d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $504 19d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $500 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $4 19d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 76¢ $26 19d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 81¢ $105 19d
Iran closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 74¢ $5 19d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $105 19d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 BUY Yes 49¢ $4 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,162.05 · official $10,162.06 (match) · 211 history records