Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:58:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
CE 0xcef6…353f other 65 markets active 1h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$241 (-16%) realized −$240 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate36%18W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$149now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$56
14 days+$15
30 days+$96
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$358
sports 32% +$117
crypto 4% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +36.2% +23.3% 36% 32% +3.4%
≤30d 47 +17.6% +6.4% 38% 36% +0.7%
≤90d 50 +12.3% +1.6% 36% 34% -29.5%
all 50 +12.3% +1.6% 36% 34% -29.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.6% 34% -29.5%
10% -8.2% 28% -36.3%
15% -17.0% 24% -42.4%
20% -25.2% 24% -48.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$19 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$149
Realized−$240
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses18 / 32
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions14
Markets (closed)50 / 65
History coverage113d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 58¢ $81 $83 +$2 (+3%)
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-2%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 45¢ 42¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-20%)
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+10%)
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+21%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-9%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-42%)
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 19 $10 $0 -3%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 19 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 +$24 +474%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $28 −$27 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $35 +$18 +51%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$11 +23%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 +$14 +340%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 +$17 +324%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +114%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$2 -3%
Will Victor Wembanyama record a quadruple double this season? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 −$27 -53%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 $0 -1%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $31 +$67 +220%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$14 +276%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$7 +650%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 11 $25 −$25 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 222.5 Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 26, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $224 +$75 +34%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $5 +$6 +109%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $45 −$45 -100%
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? Jun 06 $31 +$7 +22%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 05 $3 $0 +16%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $15 −$2 -14%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $5 +$17 +336%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP? May 31 $16 +$27 +165%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $31 +$38 +125%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 26 $5 +$1 +17%
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 21 $28 −$4 -13%
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 12 $357 −$357 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 57¢ $10 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $62 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 63¢ $31 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 38h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 46h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 46h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 47h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 47h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 47h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $13 2d
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $26 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $53 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 2d
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 2d
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY Yes 28¢ $16 2d
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 2d
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $15 3d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $18 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 53¢ $22 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $148.55 · official $148.23 (match) · 183 history records