Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:24:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CE
0xcef6…2ade
crypto · 1526 markets active 1h ago
2.5score
+$441 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$438 · open +$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$43
Realized+$438
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses975 / 552
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1527 / 1526
History coverage46d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day40.7
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 6 History 1527 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$11
14 days−$11
30 days−$384
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 14? Yes 47¢ 51¢ $16 $18 +$1 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Yes 39¢ 40¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $7 $8 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? Yes 55¢ 59¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 13? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 13? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Up 72¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $0 −$1 -248%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $0 −$5 -10048%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $0 −$4 -2045%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 27 $1 +$1 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 27 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 27 $1 +$1 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET May 27 $1 +$1 +60%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 26, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 27 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 27 $1 +$1 +93%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 26, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 26, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 26 $1 +$1 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 26, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 26, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 26 $1 +$1 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 26 $1 +$1 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 26, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 26 $1 $0 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 26 $1 +$1 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 26 $1 +$1 +60%
XRP Up or Down - May 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 26 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 26 $1 +$1 +68%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 26 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 26 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 26 $1 +$1 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 26, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 26 $1 +$1 +65%
XRP Up or Down - May 26, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 26 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 26 $1 +$1 +62%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 72% +$894
other 28% −$436
weather 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 32m
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 13? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 13? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 14? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 8h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 14? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? BUY Yes 55¢ $3 9h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 14? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 9h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 14? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 14? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 11h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 12h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 14? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 12h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 13? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 14? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 14h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 16d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 16d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 16d
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 16d
XRP Up or Down - May 26, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 16d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -83.4% -84.9% 14% 14% -82.9%
≤30d 758 -10.6% -19.1% 51% 50% -19.6%
≤90d 1527 -3.6% -12.8% 64% 63% -7.9%
all 1527 -3.6% -12.8% 64% 63% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover40.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.8% 63% -7.9%
10% ← realistic here -21.1% 48% -16.7%
15% -28.8% 38% -24.8%
20% -35.8% 26% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.82 · official $42.83 (match) · 3500 history records