Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T07:47:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CE
0xcef9…cb4d
crypto · 1308 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$187 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$186 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4
Realized−$186
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses615 / 693
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1308 / 1308
History coverage60d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day47.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 1 History 1308 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$90
7 days+$7
14 days+$2
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-24%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$8 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$12 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$8 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$10 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$8 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$10 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$9 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$10 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$11 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$11 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$8 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 98% −$320
politics 1% +$78
sports 1% −$2
other 0% +$32
economics 0% +$9
world 0% +$14
tech 0% +$3
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $4 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $4 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $4 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $4 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $4 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 225 +0.5% -9.1% 32% 32% -8.6%
≤30d 292 -4.0% -13.2% 34% 33% -9.9%
≤90d 1308 -5.8% -14.7% 47% 37% -12.0%
all 1308 -5.8% -14.7% 47% 37% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover47.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.7% 37% -12.0%
10% ← realistic here -22.9% 26% -20.4%
15% -30.3% 18% -28.1%
20% -37.2% 12% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.80 · official $3.80 (match) · 3500 history records