Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:28:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xcef9…706b other 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$19 (-1%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate86%24W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$395now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$3
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% −$1
crypto 13% $0
world 3% −$18
tech 2% $0
weather 1% −$1
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -17.3% -25.2% 60% 20% -10.0%
≤30d 26 -6.8% -15.7% 85% 4% -11.3%
≤90d 28 -6.3% -15.2% 86% 4% -11.3%
all 28 -6.3% -15.2% 86% 4% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 4% -11.3%
10% -23.3% 0% -19.8%
15% -30.7% 0% -27.5%
20% -37.5% 0% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$5 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$395
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses24 / 4
Open positions8
Markets (closed)28 / 36
History coverage44d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $216 $216 +$0 (+0%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $132 $132 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 88¢ $16 $15 −$1 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 86¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+3%)
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will Solana reach $160 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Forsen to get signed by an LCK prog org by Jun 30? No 100¢ 96¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 20 $1 $0 +13%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June? Jun 19 $224 −$2 -1%
Will Trump say “Crazy” or “Amazing” 5+ times during UFC 250? Jun 18 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? Jun 15 $225 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June? Jun 07 $239 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 6? Jun 06 $2 $0 +0%
Will Lee Chul-gyu win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election Jun 04 $6 $0 +0%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Jun 01 $15 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? Jun 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May? Jun 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in May? Jun 01 $15 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? Jun 01 $106 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? Jun 01 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on May 31? Jun 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $14 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 01 $24 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o May 31 $17 $0 +0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,400 in May? May 30 $24 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 30 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $4 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on May 28? May 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Vance's remarks not air? May 28 $3 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 25 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ma May 21 $2 $0 +0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $11 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $132 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $216 37h
Will Solana reach $160 in June? BUY No 100¢ $6 37h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $220 37h
Will Trump say “Crazy” or “Amazing” 5+ times during UFC 250? BUY No 99¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY No 88¢ $1 3d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $2 3d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $224 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $1 5d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $225 5d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $225 13d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $14 13d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $239 13d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 13d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $239 15d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $16 15d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $2 15d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $20 21d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $2 22d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $86 23d
Will Lee Chul-gyu win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election BUY No 100¢ $6 25d
Will Vance's remarks not air? BUY No 98¢ $3 25d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $3 25d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $4 25d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $10 25d
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o BUY No 100¢ $17 25d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $6 25d
Forsen to get signed by an LCK prog org by Jun 30? BUY No 100¢ $3 25d
Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? BUY No 99¢ $5 25d
Will Solana reach $110 in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $394.71 · official $394.71 (match) · 82 history records