Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:26:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
CE 0xcefa…edf3 world 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 469d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate37%15W / 26L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% +$1
other 12% +$1
politics 9% +$1
sports 5% $0
culture 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 1% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.0% -9.5% 29% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 13 +1.1% -8.6% 38% 8% -9.3%
≤90d 13 +1.1% -8.6% 38% 8% -9.3%
all 41 +0.7% -8.9% 37% 2% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 2% -9.2%
10% -17.6% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.6% 0% -25.8%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.53 per $1 lost it wins $2.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

469d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses15 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage469d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 52¢ 52¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $42 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $42 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $60 $0 -0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $82 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $19 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $17 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $36 +$1 +3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +14%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $35 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $11 $0 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $40 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $40 $0 +0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 09 $10 $0 -1%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 09 $11 $0 +1%
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? Jul 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jul 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ben Shelton win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 08 $9 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in July? Jul 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 08 $8 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jul 07 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times July 4–11? Jul 07 $9 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10-1.14ºC in June 2025? Jul 06 $9 $0 +2%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi Jul 01 $14 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Jul 01 $14 $0 -0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 26 $14 $0 -3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 20 $2 $0 +3%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? May 20 $15 $0 +2%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 30 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $14 +$1 +4%
Will Trump issue an executive order on March 22? Mar 24 $15 $0 +2%
Will George Russell win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint? Mar 23 $13 +$1 +6%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 20 $13 $0 -1%
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? Mar 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 09 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $42 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $42 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $12 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $26 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $38 16h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $42 19h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $42 22h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $41 30h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $41 33h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 93¢ $13 35h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 89¢ $25 37h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 89¢ $37 42h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 19¢ $7 46h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 19¢ $7 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 80¢ $37 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $37 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 46¢ $4 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 47¢ $4 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $3 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $3 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $19 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $19 5d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $19 5d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $9 5d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 5d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $0 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $1 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $6 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $10 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $17 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.42 · official $0.00 (match) · 118 history records