Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:13:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

CE 0xcefd…fe98 other 4 markets active 5d ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL −$71 (-26%) realized −$71 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip

Net edge-42%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate25%1W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$69per market

Trades / day9.0pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)-37.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	-31.1%	-37.6%	25%	25%	-45.1%
≤30d	4	-31.1%	-37.6%	25%	25%	-45.1%
≤90d	4	-31.1%	-37.6%	25%	25%	-45.1%
all	4	-31.1%	-37.6%	25%	25%	-45.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover9.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-37.6%	25%	-45.1%
10%	-43.6%	25%	-50.3%
15%	-49.0%	25%	-55.1%
20%	-54.0%	0%	-59.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -39% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -31% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$20 vs −$32 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.21 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$71

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)25%

Wins / losses1 / 3

Open positions0

Markets (closed)4 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$69

Trades / day9.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 4 Trades

no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco?	Jun 13	$132	+$20	+15%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$7	−$4	-55%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 13	$51	−$7	-13%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 3 Morocco?	Jun 13	$86	−$84	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco?	BUY Yes	10¢	$3	4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	SELL Yes	9¢	$3	4d
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco?	BUY Yes	10¢	$45	4d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	2¢	$45	4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	19¢	$7	4d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$51	4d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 3 Morocco?	BUY Yes	6¢	$86	4d
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco?	SELL Yes	11¢	$144	4d
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco?	BUY Yes	6¢	$84	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 9 history records