Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:13:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
CF 0xcf02…b08f weather 355 markets active 2h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$45 (+1%) realized +$45 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate93%321W / 26L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$91now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$33
14 days−$20
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 93% −$13
world 2% +$9
economics 2% $0
other 2% +$2
sports 2% +$44
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 92 -2.3% -11.6% 92% 2% -12.2%
≤30d 204 -0.7% -10.1% 93% 2% -8.7%
≤90d 334 +1.7% -8.0% 93% 4% -8.7%
all 347 +1.7% -8.0% 93% 4% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 4% -8.6%
10% -16.8% 2% -17.3%
15% -24.9% 2% -25.3%
20% -32.2% 1% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$91
Realized+$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses321 / 26
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)347 / 355
History coverage137d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 347 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 19? No 95¢ 96¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 19? No 93¢ 93¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? No 95¢ 100¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 19? No 96¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 19? No 99¢ 98¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 19? No 98¢ 97¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 19? No 93¢ 83¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on June 19? No 97¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 17? Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 18? Jun 17 $10 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $9 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 17? Jun 17 $9 −$3 -34%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju Jun 17 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $9 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 16? Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +20%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? Jun 16 $9 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $19 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $9 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 −$16 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 15 $9 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 16? Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 19? BUY No 94¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $20 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $10 9h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $10 9h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $10 9h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $10 11h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $10 12h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $6 12h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $4 12h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $0 12h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $10 15h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $10 16h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 19? BUY No 92¢ $9 17h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $10 17h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $10 19h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $9 19h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $10 19h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $10 20h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 17? SELL No 63¢ $6 20h
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 19? BUY No 96¢ $10 21h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $10 21h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $10 22h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $10 22h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $10 22h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $9 23h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $10 23h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $10 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.54 · official $90.55 (match) · 1038 history records