Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:15:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcf03…81a0 crypto 51 markets active 0h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$69 (-11%) realized −$74 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate43%19W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 26d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$74
world 11% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-29.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -4.5% -13.6% 52% 39% -8.0%
≤30d 44 -22.3% -29.7% 43% 32% -22.1%
≤90d 44 -22.3% -29.7% 43% 32% -22.1%
all 44 -22.3% -29.7% 43% 32% -22.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.7% 32% -22.1%
10% -36.5% 27% -29.5%
15% -42.6% 20% -36.3%
20% -48.2% 14% -42.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized−$74
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses19 / 25
Open positions7
Markets (closed)44 / 51
History coverage26d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Down 38¢ 56¢ $11 $17 +$6 (+50%)
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? No 80¢ 84¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026? No 46¢ 63¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+37%)
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? No 76¢ 80¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? No 69¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $13 +$7 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $32 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$6 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$4 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $17 −$3 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$7 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$4 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$10 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$7 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $17 −$3 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$8 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$6 +124%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 23 $16 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 23 $44 −$9 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 22 $7 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 22 $56 −$41 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 22 $18 −$3 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 22 $17 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 22 $25 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 22 $18 −$8 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 22 $12 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 22 $11 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 22 $19 +$8 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 22 $24 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31? May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $19 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $8 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $8 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $4 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $0 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $10 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $3 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $0 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $12 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $15 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $23 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $12 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 34m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.45 · official $74.36 · 218 history records