Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:17:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcf04…6bf7 sports 149 markets active 16h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$147 (-12%) realized −$134 · open −$13
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate40%46W / 69L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day14.9pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$127now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$94
14 days−$133
30 days−$139
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$58
other 14% −$13
weather 9% −$23
politics 6% −$23
crypto 5% −$31
finance 4% −$12
world 3% $0
culture 1% +$10
economics 1% −$1
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +12.3% +1.6% 43% 30% -23.4%
≤30d 115 -6.6% -15.5% 40% 33% -20.5%
≤90d 115 -6.6% -15.5% 40% 33% -20.5%
all 115 -6.6% -15.5% 40% 33% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 33% -20.5%
10% -23.6% 23% -28.1%
15% -31.0% 19% -35.0%
20% -37.8% 17% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$127
Realized−$134
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses46 / 69
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions34
Markets (closed)115 / 149
History coverage17d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day14.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 34 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds St. Louis Cardinals 43¢ 38¢ $19 $17 −$2 (-10%)
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Yes 36¢ 85¢ $5 $12 +$7 (+136%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 34¢ 40¢ $7 $9 +$1 (+19%)
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-3%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? Yes 83¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+20%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $5 $5 +$1 (+15%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%? Yes 88¢ 92¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? No 69¢ 68¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $4 +$2 (+88%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? No 92¢ 82¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 21¢ 11¢ $7 $4 −$3 (-48%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-22%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $4 −$1 (-24%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $4 +$1 (+47%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+39%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $3 +$0 (+9%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? Yes 33¢ 14¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-56%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$1 (-24%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 56 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa Jun 16 $10 −$6 -56%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $10 +$1 +11%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +33%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $10 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 15? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $5 +$6 +109%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$2 +38%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $5 +$3 +61%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $5 $0 +10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$8 +165%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 $0 -6%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$4 +76%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $5 −$3 -57%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $2 $0 -5%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$3 -52%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Modena: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Mayar Sherif Jun 11 $10 +$1 +12%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 11 $10 +$1 +13%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Greet Minnen Jun 11 $11 +$1 +8%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 11 $5 $0 -2%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $13 +$2 +17%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $12 +$1 +10%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 11 $14 +$1 +10%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $6 +$2 +38%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $16 −$7 -43%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $6 −$6 -98%
Ilkley: Tereza Martincova vs Katie Swan Jun 10 $17 +$2 +10%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 10 $5 $0 -3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 10 $6 −$5 -94%
Modena: Laura Samson vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 10 $214 −$2 -1%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 10 $19 −$19 -99%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? Jun 10 $6 +$1 +24%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 10 $7 −$1 -13%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 10 $6 +$3 +49%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $6 −$6 -91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa SELL Allura Zamarripa 39¢ $4 16h
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa BUY Allura Zamarripa 88¢ $10 17h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 90¢ $10 17h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones BUY Francesca Jones 89¢ $10 44h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda BUY Tommy Paul 91¢ $10 45h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 10¢ $5 2d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 54¢ $5 2d
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $4 3d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 14? BUY Up 39¢ $5 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 3d
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 69¢ $5 3d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 51¢ $5 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 90¢ $10 4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY No 92¢ $5 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 47¢ $5 5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? BUY No 24¢ $5 5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? BUY No 55¢ $5 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 5d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners 51¢ $5 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 5d
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prima BUY Yes 36¢ $5 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Natus Vincere 16¢ $2 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 37¢ $5 5d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 88¢ $5 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $126.67 · official $126.37 (match) · 302 history records