Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:29:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcf05…8a47 sports 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$86 (+10%) realized +$78 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%14W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day13.3pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% +$6
other 29% +$74
world 4% −$39
crypto 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -6.3% -15.2% 42% 42% -6.4%
≤30d 33 -6.3% -15.2% 42% 42% -6.4%
≤90d 33 -6.3% -15.2% 42% 42% -6.4%
all 33 -6.3% -15.2% 42% 42% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 42% -6.4%
10% -23.3% 39% -15.4%
15% -30.7% 39% -23.6%
20% -37.5% 33% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$18 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized+$78
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses14 / 19
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions5
Markets (closed)33 / 38
History coverage5d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day13.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 55¢ 72¢ $29 $38 +$9 (+30%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Team to Take First Corner DR Congo 33¢ 50¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+52%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+38%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
DR Congo to score first vs. Portugal? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $53 +$32 +60%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $39 −$39 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $37 +$17 +46%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $52 −$26 -50%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $55 −$4 -8%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $39 +$33 +84%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $82 −$82 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $24 +$11 +45%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $33 −$33 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $16 +$18 +115%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $23 +$80 +346%
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $9 +$13 +141%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $29 +$61 +207%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $26 −$22 -83%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $11 −$8 -73%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $40 +$20 +50%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -75%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Dota 2: GG Boom vs Ignite (BO3) - The International North America Ope Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $29 +$15 +52%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $21 −$11 -53%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $29 +$16 +55%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $16 −$13 -80%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $39 +$39 +101%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $8 +$1 +15%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $19 +$18 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Team to Take First Corner BUY DR Congo 33¢ $11 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $30 1h
DR Congo to score first vs. Portugal? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 5h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $53 23h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $37 42h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $39 42h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 24¢ $26 42h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 31¢ $51 42h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 19¢ $20 42h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 23¢ $13 43h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $16 43h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $24 44h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $35 45h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 50¢ $35 46h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $39 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 17¢ $3 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $34 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $34 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 52¢ $48 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 36¢ $21 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 12¢ $7 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 60¢ $26 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $26 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 43¢ $16 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $9 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $3 2d
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 2d
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 43¢ $13 2d
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 99¢ $23 2d
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 38¢ $9 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.35 · official $76.38 · 83 history records