Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:51:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcf05…3d5b weather 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized +$783 · open −$785
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip
Net edge-60%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$204per market
Trades / day25.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$154now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$831
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-53.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -48.2% -53.2% 0% 0% -66.8%
≤30d 2 -48.2% -53.2% 0% 0% -66.8%
≤90d 2 -48.2% -53.2% 0% 0% -66.8%
all 2 -48.2% -53.2% 0% 0% -66.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -53.2% 0% -66.8%
10% ← realistic here -57.6% 0% -69.9%
15% -61.7% 0% -72.8%
20% -65.5% 0% -75.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -63% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -48% · $-wt -63% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
— vs −$23 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$154
Realized+$783
Unrealized−$785
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)2 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$204
Trades / day25.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 20? Yes 72¢ 100¢ $110 $152 +$42 (+39%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21? Yes 91¢ 0¢ $819 $2 −$818 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 20? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 21? Jun 21 $52 −$43 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $20 −$3 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21? BUY Yes 84¢ $71 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21? BUY Yes 92¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21? BUY Yes 92¢ $23 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21? BUY Yes 92¢ $23 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21? BUY Yes 92¢ $186 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21? BUY Yes 92¢ $23 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21? BUY Yes 92¢ $23 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21? BUY Yes 92¢ $23 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21? BUY Yes 92¢ $46 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21? BUY Yes 92¢ $135 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21? BUY Yes 92¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21? BUY Yes 92¢ $80 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21? BUY Yes 92¢ $41 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21? BUY Yes 92¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21? BUY Yes 92¢ $109 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 21? SELL Yes 7¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21? BUY Yes 90¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 21? BUY Yes 38¢ $52 5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 26h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 20? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 27h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 28h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 20? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 28h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 20? SELL Yes 51¢ $8 28h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 20? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 29h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 20? SELL Yes 57¢ $9 29h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 20? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 29h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 20? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 29h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 20? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $154.17 · official $153.72 (match) · 31 history records