Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:04:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcf05…2a23 crypto 243 markets active 2h ago coverage 43d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 42d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (78 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,137 (+9%) realized +$3,137 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate49%118W / 125L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$145per market
Trades / day77.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 43d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,123
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (78 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +2.0% -7.7% 40% 40% -8.0%
≤30d 165 +1.3% -8.3% 50% 45% -7.5%
≤90d 243 -3.2% -12.4% 49% 44% -12.5%
all 243 -3.2% -12.4% 49% 44% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover77.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.4% 44% -12.5%
10% ← realistic here -20.8% 41% -20.9%
15% -28.4% 38% -28.5%
20% -35.5% 37% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$124 vs −$127 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,137
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses118 / 125
Open positions0
Markets (closed)243 / 243
History coverage43d ⚠
Avg bet$145
Trades / day77.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 243 Trades
no open positions (108 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 22 $50 −$48 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 22 $47 −$45 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 22 $91 −$91 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 22 $109 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 21 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 21 $100 +$256 +256%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 21 $54 +$46 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 21 $51 +$49 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 21 $54 −$52 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 21 $49 −$48 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 20 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 20 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 20 $116 −$111 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 20 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 20 $87 +$172 +197%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 20 $135 −$135 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $114 −$114 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 20 $12 +$77 +628%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 19 $225 −$225 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 19 $275 +$225 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 19 $165 +$135 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 19 $70 +$108 +153%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 19 $43 +$35 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 19 $68 +$130 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 19 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 19 $102 +$254 +248%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 19 $194 +$29 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 18 $147 −$144 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 18 $50 +$67 +134%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $308 −$300 -97%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $326 +$554 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$29 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $270 −$267 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $119 −$114 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 17 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $260 +$244 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $194 −$194 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $117 +$76 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $123 −$117 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $225 −$225 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $204 +$241 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$28 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $92 +$74 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $66 +$22 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $313 +$16 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $109 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $91 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records