Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:16:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcf07…c770 other 323 markets active 4h ago coverage 61d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 61d only
✗ bot/MM pace (52 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$19,704 (+10%) realized +$14,387 · open +$5,317
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate41%56W / 79L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$590per market
Trades / day51.9pace
Fees−$92est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$110,288now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$91
7 days−$1,048
14 days−$1,431
30 days+$2,263
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% +$9,835
world 25% +$776
crypto 20% +$2,656
tech 11% −$2,088
politics 3% −$1,125
sports 2% +$1,798
economics 1% −$332
finance 1% +$198
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (52 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -30.5% -37.1% 41% 29% -38.3%
≤30d 80 -0.3% -9.8% 39% 22% -6.0%
≤90d 135 +5.5% -4.5% 41% 24% -0.8%
all 135 +5.5% -4.5% 41% 24% -0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.5% 24% -0.8%
10% ← realistic here -13.7% 22% -10.3%
15% -22.0% 20% -19.0%
20% -29.6% 17% -26.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -0% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$331 vs −$156 · ×2.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$110,288
Realized+$14,387
Unrealized+$5,317
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses56 / 79
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$92
Open positions237
Markets (closed)135 / 323
History coverage61d ⚠
Avg bet$590
Trades / day51.9
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 237 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $12,707 $12,849 +$142 (+1%)
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81 No 84¢ 85¢ $4,234 $4,268 +$35 (+1%)
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 37¢ 64¢ $1,770 $3,066 +$1,297 (+73%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $3,250 $2,987 −$263 (-8%)
Ink FDV above $250M one day after launch? No 16¢ 38¢ $1,208 $2,936 +$1,729 (+143%)
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $195 in June? No 51¢ 99¢ $1,478 $2,888 +$1,410 (+95%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $2,300 $2,500 +$200 (+9%)
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31? No 80¢ 86¢ $2,046 $2,204 +$158 (+8%)
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Yes 10¢ 14¢ $1,623 $2,111 +$487 (+30%)
Base FDV above $8B one day after launch? No 68¢ 76¢ $1,854 $2,070 +$215 (+12%)
Base FDV above $12B one day after launch? No 80¢ 86¢ $1,888 $2,040 +$152 (+8%)
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Up 52¢ 62¢ $1,620 $1,927 +$307 (+19%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 41¢ 94¢ $814 $1,851 +$1,037 (+127%)
Will Apyx launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 21¢ 44¢ $883 $1,842 +$959 (+109%)
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? Yes 64¢ 79¢ $1,453 $1,797 +$344 (+24%)
Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 21¢ 36¢ $992 $1,691 +$699 (+70%)
OPEC dissolves in 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $1,555 $1,615 +$60 (+4%)
Will Pump.fun reach $0.0090 by December 31, 2026? No 85¢ 88¢ $1,411 $1,464 +$54 (+4%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 70¢ 48¢ $2,109 $1,430 −$679 (-32%)
Will STRC market cap hit $14B by June 30? No 61¢ 100¢ $831 $1,368 +$537 (+65%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 27¢ 22¢ $1,643 $1,351 −$292 (-18%)
Base FDV above $10B one day after launch? No 66¢ 83¢ $1,061 $1,328 +$267 (+25%)
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? Yes 47¢ 71¢ $842 $1,273 +$431 (+51%)
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 64¢ 78¢ $1,017 $1,240 +$223 (+22%)
Metamask FDV above $3B one day after launch? No 91¢ 92¢ $1,148 $1,161 +$13 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jack Draper be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 29 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 29 $209 +$92 +44%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $800b on June 30? Jun 29 $83 +$17 +20%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $190 in June? Jun 27 $427 +$217 +51%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 27 $340 −$102 -30%
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 27 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 27 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Ethena reach $1.20 by December 31, 2026? Jun 26 $13 $0 +4%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $270 −$270 -100%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $195 −$195 -100%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $162 −$162 -100%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 26 $458 −$458 -100%
Will Ventuals launch a token by June 30 2026? Jun 25 $244 +$7 +3%
Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 25 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $340 −$340 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Jun 23 $72 +$72 +100%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 16-22? Jun 23 $191 +$364 +190%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 16-22? Jun 22 $99 −$59 -60%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 22 $2,056 −$60 -3%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $1,557 −$441 -28%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $1,404 +$315 +22%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 22 $95 −$95 -100%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 22 $264 +$248 +94%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $210 in June? Jun 21 $20 +$1 +7%
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? Jun 21 $480 +$19 +4%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $33 −$33 -100%
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $175 −$175 -100%
Will Elon Musk and Sam Altman settle? Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $181 −$181 -100%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 19 $160 −$160 -100%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $160 +$840 +525%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31? Jun 17 $28 +$6 +20%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? Jun 17 $230 −$128 -56%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $210 −$210 -100%
Will Hyperliquid reach $76 in June? Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 16 $106 −$106 -100%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day? Jun 15 $338 +$378 +112%
SpaceX IPO: Open Up/Down on Second Day Jun 15 $588 +$403 +69%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 9-15? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 15 $990 +$10 +1%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 9-15? Jun 15 $46 +$13 +28%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 15 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $260 −$260 -100%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $48 −$48 -100%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $160 −$160 -100%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $660b on June 30? Jun 14 $108 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $700b and $720b on June 30? Jun 14 $338 +$4 +1%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $720b and $740b on June 30? Jun 14 $295 +$3 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $15 3h
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $15 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $301 5h
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $800b on June 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 6h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $500 7h
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY No 23¢ $35 8h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 0¢ $91 8h
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81 BUY No 86¢ $175 8h
Will JD Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? BUY Yes 9¢ $62 8h
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81 BUY No 85¢ $170 9h
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81 BUY No 85¢ $74 9h
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81 BUY No 85¢ $8 9h
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY No 64¢ $2 11h
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY No 64¢ $8 11h
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY No 64¢ $409 11h
Will Top Esports win the LPL 2026 season? BUY Yes 7¢ $58 14h
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $205 in June? SELL No 100¢ $101 14h
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $195 in June? SELL No 99¢ $12 21h
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $195 in June? SELL No 99¢ $13 21h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $456 22h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 23h
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $195 in June? SELL No 99¢ $20 23h
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $195 in June? SELL No 99¢ $34 23h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 23h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 23h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 23h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $288 23h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? SELL Up 33¢ $92 23h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? SELL Up 33¢ $11 23h
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $195 in June? SELL No 99¢ $15 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $110,287.94 · official $110,371.63 (match) · 3500 history records