Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:15:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcf08…f17e other 143 markets active 2h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,245 (-1%) realized −$1,247 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate17%24W / 118L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,603per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$447now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$17
14 days−$35
30 days−$162
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$351
politics 41% −$110
sports 10% −$814
world 3% −$6
economics 1% −$2
crypto 1% +$5
culture 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 33 -3.2% -12.4% 9% 3% -9.7%
≤90d 96 -0.9% -10.4% 7% 3% -9.6%
all 142 -2.5% -11.8% 17% 11% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 11% -10.0%
10% -20.2% 11% -18.6%
15% -27.9% 9% -26.5%
20% -35.0% 8% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,156) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$24 · ×2.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$447
Realized−$1,247
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses24 / 118
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)142 / 143
History coverage130d
Avg bet$1,603
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 142 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $445 $447 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $2,423 −$3 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $1,997 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $931 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $1,430 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $5,881 −$6 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $1,154 −$2 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,036 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $2,255 −$4 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,138 −$2 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,519 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $3,161 −$5 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $1,117 −$2 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $2,723 −$4 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $2,976 −$4 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $1,349 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $4,644 −$5 -0%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 06 $68 −$68 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 05 $72 +$70 +97%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $2,940 −$3 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $10,406 −$11 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,263 −$3 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 02 $428 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.00 in May? Jun 02 $724 +$2 +0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $1,485 −$2 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 01 $1,488 −$2 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 01 $2,188 −$3 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $2,041 −$3 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $2,156 −$2 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 28 $549 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $650 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $542 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $2,513 −$3 -0%
Will Parma Calcio 1913 win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $86 −$86 -100%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $878 −$1 -0%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 23 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $3,035 −$4 -0%
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 21 $1,014 −$1 -0%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 21 $1,088 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $4,753 −$5 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $1,610 −$3 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $5,705 −$8 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $1,612 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $1,542 −$2 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $1,371 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $1,574 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $6,923 −$7 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 07 $1,694 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $3,079 −$4 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 05 $3,287 −$4 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 04 $1,607 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $313 1h
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $314 3h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $530 47h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $530 2d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $384 2d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $385 3d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $349 4d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $350 4d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $246 4d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $246 4d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,152 5d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,154 6d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,034 6d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,036 6d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,234 8d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,236 8d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,136 10d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,138 11d
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $445 11d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,517 11d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,519 11d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,561 11d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1,564 11d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,115 12d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,117 12d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,139 12d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,140 13d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,245 14d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,247 14d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,347 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $446.99 · official $446.99 (match) · 508 history records