Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:58:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
CF 0xcf08…edd1 other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 146d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$60 (+7%) realized +$65 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate55%6W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$63
7 days+$63
14 days+$63
30 days+$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% +$52
crypto 8% −$1
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +20.4% +8.9% 67% 67% +60.3%
≤30d 3 +20.4% +8.9% 67% 67% +60.3%
≤90d 3 +20.4% +8.9% 67% 67% +60.3%
all 11 -6.2% -15.1% 55% 36% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 36% -3.8%
10% -23.2% 27% -13.0%
15% -30.6% 18% -21.4%
20% -37.4% 18% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +77% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$17 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized+$65
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses6 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage146d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 49¢ 40¢ $25 $20 −$5 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $25 +$14 +56%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 +$53 +105%
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 75M Feb 14 $191 +$14 +7%
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 100 Feb 13 $236 −$55 -23%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Feb 12 $35 +$3 +8%
Will Silver (SI) settle at >$115 in June? Feb 12 $35 −$14 -40%
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027? Feb 12 $35 −$9 -25%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Feb 09 $200 +$47 +23%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in February? Feb 05 $36 +$8 +22%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $25 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $39 7h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $25 11h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 30h
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 75M SELL Yes 58¢ $205 125d
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 75M BUY Yes 54¢ $191 126d
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 100 SELL Yes 45¢ $181 126d
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 100 BUY Yes 59¢ $41 127d
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 100 BUY Yes 59¢ $27 127d
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 100 BUY Yes 59¢ $6 127d
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 100 BUY Yes 59¢ $47 127d
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 100 BUY Yes 59¢ $12 127d
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 100 BUY Yes 59¢ $30 127d
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 100 BUY Yes 59¢ $74 127d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $38 127d
Will Silver (SI) settle at >$115 in June? SELL Yes 30¢ $21 127d
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027? SELL Yes 27¢ $26 127d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $100 132d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $100 132d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $100 132d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in February? SELL Yes 90¢ $43 134d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in February? BUY Yes 74¢ $8 135d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in February? BUY Yes 74¢ $27 135d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in February? BUY Yes 74¢ $0 135d
US government shutdown Saturday? BUY No $2 139d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $6 139d
Will Silver (SI) settle at >$115 in June? BUY Yes 51¢ $34 141d
Will Silver (SI) settle at >$115 in June? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 142d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $29 145d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.15 · official $19.13 · 35 history records