Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:00:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcf0a…6eb7 other 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 257d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-2%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate43%15W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% −$8
other 23% −$6
crypto 11% $0
politics 7% +$1
tech 3% $0
economics 2% −$1
sports 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -4.4% -13.5% 0% 0% -12.8%
≤30d 6 -1.7% -11.1% 33% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 11 -1.9% -11.2% 36% 0% -11.4%
all 35 -1.0% -10.5% 43% 9% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 9% -10.6%
10% -19.0% 6% -19.2%
15% -26.9% 3% -27.0%
20% -34.0% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

257d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses15 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage257d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 52¢ 80¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Jun 24 $58 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $27 $0 -1%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $33 −$4 -12%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 27 $51 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $53 +$1 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $45 +$1 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $7 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $62 −$1 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $61 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 23 $75 −$9 -12%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 21 $41 +$1 +3%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Dec 14 $19 −$4 -23%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Dec 14 $17 +$3 +16%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Dec 06 $17 $0 +1%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $11 $0 -0%
Buccaneers vs. Rams Nov 25 $8 +$3 +35%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Nov 20 $3 −$1 -33%
Will Ethereum reach $5600 in October? Nov 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025 Oct 21 $2 $0 +6%
Will FlyQuest win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 21 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Australia PM events on Oct Oct 20 $17 +$1 +5%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 19 $19 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Oct 18 $1 −$1 -70%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 18 $19 $0 -0%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Oct 13 $1 +$1 +48%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 13 $20 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 13 $21 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $350 in October? Oct 13 $21 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 12 $1 $0 -2%
Will Z.ai have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 12 $23 $0 +0%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by December 31? Oct 11 $22 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 11 $1 $0 +3%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 11 $23 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $58 1h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $58 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 6h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $11 6h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $12 9h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $11 17h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 17h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $14 20h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 46¢ $7 31h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 47¢ $40 33h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $18 35h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $18 35h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $18 35h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $8 44h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 44h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $15 44h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $33 2d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 28d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 28d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 28d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $16 29d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $34 29d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $50 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 74¢ $36 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 74¢ $10 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 72¢ $24 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 72¢ $21 29d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $18 29d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $13 29d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $18 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.43 · official $0.00 (match) · 134 history records