Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:33:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
CF 0xcf0b…78fc other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 21d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$176 (-10%) realized −$166 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$163per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit9%portable
Net worth$1,390now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 21d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% −$160
sports 11% −$200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$87 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$1,390
Realized−$166
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 4
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions7
Markets (closed)4 / 11
History coverage21d
Avg bet$163
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit9%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $200 $294 +$94 (+47%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 12¢ 14¢ $200 $242 +$42 (+21%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $200 $229 +$29 (+15%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $200 $195 −$5 (-2%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $200 $180 −$20 (-10%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $200 $150 −$50 (-25%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $200 $100 −$100 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 29 $203 −$200 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 1h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 12¢ $205 13d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $206 13d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $206 13d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $206 13d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $206 13d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $206 13d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $205 20d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 43¢ $203 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,390.27 · official $1,391.03 (match) · 31 history records