Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:32:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
CF 0xcf0d…d66f other 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 240d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,006 (-24%) realized −$2,005 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate79%22W / 6L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$286per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$25
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 27% −$1,138
crypto 24% −$788
economics 19% +$49
other 10% −$17
world 10% −$254
sports 6% +$177
finance 4% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +4.4% -5.6% 67% 67% -7.2%
≤90d 12 +4.2% -5.7% 75% 67% -21.3%
all 28 -3.4% -12.6% 79% 36% -31.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 36% -31.7%
10% -21.0% 32% -38.2%
15% -28.6% 21% -44.2%
20% -35.6% 7% -49.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$408 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

240d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized−$2,005
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses22 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage240d
Avg bet$286
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? No 61¢ 60¢ $62 $62 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $68 −$67 -99%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? Jun 12 $60 +$42 +70%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $69 +$30 +44%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 26 $109 +$39 +36%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $190 +$79 +42%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 05 $15 −$15 -99%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 28 $12 +$3 +23%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 25 $7 +$5 +70%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-21? Apr 24 $6 +$1 +24%
UFC Fight Night: Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott (Welterweight, Main Car Apr 21 $4 +$2 +37%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 04 $273 −$273 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 04 $264 +$14 +5%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs G2 Esports (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 27 $214 +$50 +24%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 18 $297 −$83 -28%
Starmer out by February 28, 2026? Mar 07 $277 +$22 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 Feb 11 $271 +$5 +2%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Feb 04 $257 +$15 +6%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Friday? Jan 15 $252 +$5 +2%
Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2025? Jan 07 $238 +$14 +6%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 20 $221 +$17 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in November? Nov 20 $800 −$800 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? Nov 20 $744 +$56 +8%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 03 $1,209 −$1,209 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $3400 in October? Nov 03 $1,197 +$12 +1%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? Oct 31 $28 +$1 +3%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Oct 31 $51 +$1 +1%
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 31 $54 +$7 +13%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 31 $1,038 +$17 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 61¢ $63 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $68 10d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $69 15d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? BUY Yes 58¢ $60 21d
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 73¢ $109 31d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 70¢ $190 37d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 57¢ $15 52d
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 81¢ $12 59d
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers BUY Spurs 58¢ $7 62d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-21? BUY Yes 80¢ $6 65d
UFC Fight Night: Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott (Welterweight, Main Car BUY Mike Malott 73¢ $4 70d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? BUY No 95¢ $273 82d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? BUY No 95¢ $226 90d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? BUY No 95¢ $38 90d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs G2 Esports (BO5) - First Stand Group A BUY Bilibili Gaming 81¢ $214 99d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? SELL Yes 60¢ $214 99d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? BUY Yes 83¢ $175 110d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? BUY Yes 83¢ $37 110d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? BUY Yes 83¢ $16 110d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? BUY Yes 83¢ $65 110d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? BUY Yes 83¢ $4 110d
Starmer out by February 28, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $277 134d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 BUY No 98¢ $271 141d
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 95¢ $257 161d
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Friday? BUY No 98¢ $252 169d
Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2025? BUY No 94¢ $238 187d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 93¢ $221 201d
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in November? BUY No 66¢ $800 217d
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? BUY No 93¢ $744 227d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY No $58 234d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.96 · official $61.96 (match) · 72 history records