Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:32:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcf12…76de sports 190 markets active 1h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,211 (-3%) realized −$2,211 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate53%100W / 90L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$353per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$341est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$847
7 days−$1,784
14 days−$2,316
30 days−$2,316
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$4,854
other 36% +$3,037
crypto 8% −$681
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-22.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -15.5% -23.6% 50% 46% -33.1%
≤30d 120 -17.9% -25.7% 55% 52% -12.4%
≤90d 121 -14.4% -22.5% 55% 52% -11.5%
all 190 -14.5% -22.7% 53% 45% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.7% 45% -12.4%
10% -30.1% 34% -20.8%
15% -36.8% 19% -28.5%
20% -43.0% 13% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$158 vs −$203 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,211
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses100 / 90
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Est. fees paid−$341
Open positions0
Markets (closed)190 / 190
History coverage149d
Avg bet$353
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 190 Trades
no open positions (46 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $47 +$53 +114%
Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $35 −$4 -10%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $40 +$60 +152%
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $101 +$34 +34%
Harry Kane: 3+ goals Jun 17 $39 −$38 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $62 +$38 +62%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $698 −$692 -99%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $260 −$260 -100%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $412 −$408 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $284 −$280 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $350 +$160 +46%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $99 +$101 +101%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,760 +$298 +17%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $79 +$121 +152%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $72 −$71 -98%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -98%
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $163 −$162 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $305 −$303 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $474 +$68 +14%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $599 −$592 -99%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $273 +$17 +6%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $241 +$59 +24%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $432 +$68 +16%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $52 −$51 -98%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $211 −$208 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $558 +$220 +40%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $77 +$23 +31%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $238 +$62 +26%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $489 +$90 +18%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $16 −$16 -98%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $38 −$37 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $62 −$61 -99%
Will Liberia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $425 +$32 +7%
Liberia vs. Sierra Leone: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $222 −$220 -99%
Liberia vs. Sierra Leone: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $116 −$116 -100%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $681 +$128 +19%
DR Congo vs. Chile: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $677 −$677 -100%
Will Armenia vs. Moldova end in a draw? Jun 09 $102 +$28 +27%
Will Ethiopia vs. Malawi end in a draw? Jun 09 $224 +$115 +51%
Tajikistan vs. India: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $124 +$76 +61%
Tajikistan vs. India: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $502 +$138 +28%
Will Armenia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $142 −$93 -65%
Tajikistan vs. India: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $140 −$140 -100%
Will India win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $540 −$540 -100%
Armenia vs. Moldova: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $160 −$160 -100%
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $201 +$61 +30%
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $102 +$266 +260%
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $501 +$53 +11%
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $505 +$242 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $8 1h
Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $8 1h
Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $15 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $31 1h
England vs. Croatia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $47 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $100 1h
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $135 1h
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY Yes 38¢ $39 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $100 1h
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 74¢ $101 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $35 2h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $62 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $40 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $302 4h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 52¢ $126 5h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 52¢ $79 5h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 52¢ $10 5h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 56¢ $52 5h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 56¢ $231 5h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 52¢ $1 5h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 52¢ $1 5h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 52¢ $1 5h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 52¢ $1 5h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 52¢ $1 5h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 52¢ $7 5h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 52¢ $1 5h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 52¢ $1 5h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 52¢ $3 5h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 52¢ $1 5h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 52¢ $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 884 history records