Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T09:27:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcf17…87d2 world 100 markets active 0h ago coverage 537d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate42%42W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% −$11
politics 20% +$4
other 19% +$2
sports 17% +$3
economics 1% −$2
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +2.3% -7.4% 17% 17% -10.1%
≤30d 21 +0.3% -9.3% 43% 5% -9.1%
≤90d 70 +0.1% -9.4% 37% 3% -9.3%
all 99 -0.7% -10.2% 42% 12% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 12% -9.6%
10% -18.8% 6% -18.3%
15% -26.6% 5% -26.2%
20% -33.8% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

537d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses42 / 57
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)99 / 100
History coverage537d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? No 87¢ 86¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $31 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $10 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $20 −$2 -8%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $3 +$1 +22%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $77 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $24 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $55 +$2 +4%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $38 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $3 −$1 -29%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $121 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $149 +$2 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $41 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $66 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $42 $0 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 01 $70 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 29 $5 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 28 $37 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $3 $0 +8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 27 $31 +$2 +6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $31 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $74 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $40 −$1 -3%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 23 $2 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 21 $38 +$2 +4%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 21 $34 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 20 $34 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 19 $34 $0 +0%
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? May 18 $38 −$1 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $32 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 16 $2 $0 -18%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $68 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $32 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $64 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 24 $32 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $32 +$1 +3%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $96 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $67 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $63 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 20 $4 $0 -2%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 19 $72 $0 +0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 16 $32 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $67 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 15 $31 +$1 +2%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $97 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 14 $3 $0 -5%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $87 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $1 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 87¢ $18 7m
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 87¢ $20 8m
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $31 10m
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $31 2h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $6 18h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $4 18h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 19h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $0 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $15 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $11 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $8 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $27 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $12 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $29 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $24 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $24 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $13 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $13 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $44 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 78¢ $42 12d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $13 14d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $26 14d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $8 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.06 · official $38.50 (match) · 357 history records