Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:52:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcf1c…1158 crypto 679 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 33d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (90 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,117 (-7%) realized −$1,117 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate31%229W / 514L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day90.4pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 34d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$2,482
other 2% −$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (90 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-41.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 -82.2% -83.9% 9% 6% -91.2%
≤30d 572 -35.0% -41.2% 33% 26% -35.4%
≤90d 743 -35.6% -41.7% 31% 24% -34.8%
all 743 -35.6% -41.7% 31% 24% -34.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover90.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -41.7% 24% -34.8%
10% ← realistic here -47.3% 19% -41.0%
15% -52.4% 16% -46.7%
20% -57.1% 12% -51.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$13 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,117
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses229 / 514
Open positions0
Markets (closed)743 / 679
History coverage34d ⚠
Avg bet$23
Trades / day90.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 743 Trades
no open positions (330 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 26 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 26 $65 −$65 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 26 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 26 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 26 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 26 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 26 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 26 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 26 $65 −$65 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 26 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 26 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 26 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 26 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 26 $97 −$97 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 26 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 26 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 26 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 26 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 26 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 26 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 26 $85 −$85 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 26 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 26 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 26 $35 −$30 -86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $31 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $28 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $18 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $18 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $6 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $18 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $18 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $12 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $15 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $16 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records