Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:18:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
CF 0xcf1c…ec7f crypto 27 markets active 0h ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$3 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -52% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate48%12W / 13L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$919per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$4
14 days+$9
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$13
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-56.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -33.2% -39.6% 67% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 20 -39.9% -45.6% 60% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 25 -51.9% -56.5% 48% 0% -9.6%
all 25 -51.9% -56.5% 48% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -56.5% 0% -9.6%
10% -60.7% 0% -18.2%
15% -64.5% 0% -26.1%
20% -67.9% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -52% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$2,062) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -50% → late -54% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$3
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses12 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)25 / 27
History coverage39d
Avg bet$919
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? No 95¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 25? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 23? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 18? Jun 19 $2,062 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 18? Jun 18 $2,058 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 17? Jun 18 $2,054 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? Jun 17 $2,050 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $2,046 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $2,045 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 12? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 10? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 7? Jun 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 4? Jun 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 3? Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on May 29? May 30 $2,083 +$4 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 29? May 29 $2,078 +$4 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,150 on May 28? May 29 $2,074 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on May 28? May 28 $2,067 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,000 on May 27? May 28 $2,067 +$4 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on May 27? May 27 $2,062 +$6 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 25? May 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 24? May 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,850 on May 21? May 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on May 19? May 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on May 17? May 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 25? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 28m
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 23? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $2,062 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $2,058 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $2,054 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,050 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $2,046 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,045 9d
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 10d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 12d
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 10? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 14d
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 16d
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 16d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 7? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 18d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 4? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 20d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 3? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 21d
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? BUY No 95¢ $5 25d
Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $2,083 26d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $2,078 27d
Will Ethereum reach $2,150 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $2,074 27d
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $2,067 28d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,000 on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $2,067 28d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $2,062 29d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 25? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 30d
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 24? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 32d
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 24? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 32d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,850 on May 21? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 34d
Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on May 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 36d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on May 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.40 · official $6.40 (match) · 43 history records