Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T20:25:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcf1e…53b8 other 92 markets active 2h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$298 (-19%) realized −$268 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate29%25W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$39
7 days−$39
14 days−$72
30 days−$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% −$336
sports 21% +$49
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-23.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -9.9% -18.5% 24% 24% -26.0%
≤30d 37 -14.1% -22.3% 27% 24% -22.1%
≤90d 86 -14.9% -23.0% 29% 28% -24.8%
all 86 -14.9% -23.0% 29% 28% -24.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.0% 28% -24.8%
10% -30.4% 27% -32.0%
15% -37.1% 27% -38.6%
20% -43.3% 26% -44.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$15 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized−$268
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses25 / 61
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions4
Markets (closed)86 / 92
History coverage70d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+13%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+21%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 2¢ $25 $2 −$22 (-90%)
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 1¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $26 +$55 +216%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $10 −$1 -12%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 +$12 +241%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $25 −$25 -99%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 +$15 +293%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7 −$1 -11%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7 +$13 +182%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $9 −$3 -31%
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$15 +283%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$25 +122%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $5 $0 +7%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $18 −$18 -99%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? Jun 09 $10 +$20 +197%
Will United States vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Fagiano Okayama end in a draw? Jun 06 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Vissel Kōbe win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Finland win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Slovakia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Singapore vs. China PR end in a draw? Jun 05 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Shimizu S-Pulse win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $12 −$1 -10%
Will Cerezo Ōsaka vs. FC Tōkyō end in a draw? May 30 $20 +$48 +237%
Will Vissel Kōbe win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $20 +$27 +134%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Henan FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $20 +$2 +11%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw? May 17 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Sanfrecce Hiroshima win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $20 +$20 +101%
Will Shimizu S-Pulse win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will SC Freiburg vs. RB Leipzig end in a draw? May 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Urawa Red Diamonds vs. FC Tōkyō end in a draw? May 16 $17 +$39 +223%
Will Tōkyō Verdy win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $20 −$2 -11%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $40 −$39 -98%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Rodez Aveyron Football win on 2026-05-12? May 14 $26 +$51 +200%
Will Incheon United FC vs. Pohang Steelers FC end in a draw? May 12 $36 −$14 -39%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $32 −$31 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $26 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 17h
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? SELL Yes 31¢ $9 18h
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 18h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 26¢ $6 25h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY 31¢ $26 25h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 74¢ $17 26h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 27h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $25 29h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY 27¢ $10 29h
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 39h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 40h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? SELL Yes 37¢ $20 40h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 41h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL 17¢ $6 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY 18¢ $7 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 70¢ $20 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $7 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 7¢ $6 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $7 2d
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 15¢ $3 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $20 4d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 50¢ $25 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $25 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $15 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.99 · official $17.99 (match) · 142 history records