Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:10:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
CF 0xcf1f…f939 other 133 markets active 2h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$29 (-0%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate9%12W / 120L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$201per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$15
politics 33% −$12
sports 9% −$6
tech 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 10 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 87 -0.1% -9.6% 1% 0% -9.6%
all 132 -2.4% -11.7% 9% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 4% -9.6%
10% -20.2% 2% -18.3%
15% -27.9% 2% -26.2%
20% -34.9% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 61% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×5.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses12 / 120
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)132 / 133
History coverage138d
Avg bet$201
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 27 $203 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 24 $22 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $29 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 22 $26 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $172 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $17 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $307 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $207 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $23 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $498 −$1 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $189 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $165 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 25 $171 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $178 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $142 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $134 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $179 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $625 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e May 20 $149 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $576 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $168 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $339 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $177 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $187 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 12 $169 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $579 −$1 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 07 $165 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 05 $371 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $129 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $183 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $162 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $194 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 01 $166 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $164 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $136 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $163 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $155 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $176 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $187 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $314 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 26 $511 −$1 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $158 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $682 −$1 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $152 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 19 $291 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $352 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $165 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $343 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $319 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $169 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $31 1h
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $30 1h
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $30 9h
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $22 3d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 4d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 4d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 4d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $26 4d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $26 5d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $22 6d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $22 23d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $17 24d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 25d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $18 26d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $18 27d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $21 27d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $21 27d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 27d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 28d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $170 28d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $170 30d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $136 30d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $136 31d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $189 31d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 32d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $165 32d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $165 32d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $171 32d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $171 33d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $178 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.99 · official $30.99 (match) · 435 history records