Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:19:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
CF 0xcf25…cd94 sports 105 markets active 2h ago coverage 424d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$7,535 (-38%) realized −$7,154 · open −$381
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate14%13W / 80L
Whale WR30%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$191per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$689now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$6,055
sports 42% −$467
politics 10% −$1,973
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-43.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -16.7% -24.6% 50% 50% -9.3%
≤30d 13 -12.2% -20.5% 31% 31% -14.8%
≤90d 22 -48.1% -53.0% 18% 18% -27.8%
all 93 -37.9% -43.8% 14% 14% -50.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.8% 14% -50.7%
10% -49.2% 11% -55.4%
15% -54.1% 11% -59.7%
20% -58.6% 11% -63.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 30% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -35% → late -40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$445 vs −$174 · ×2.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

424d coverage
Net worth$689
Realized−$7,154
Unrealized−$381
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses13 / 80
Whale WR (big bets)30%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions8
Markets (closed)93 / 105
History coverage424d
Avg bet$191
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $436 $397 −$38 (-9%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $336 $96 −$240 (-72%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $87 $64 −$23 (-26%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $33 $56 +$23 (+69%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 0¢ 0¢ $77 $38 −$38 (-50%)
Will Jordan win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $31 $34 +$4 (+12%)
Will Guillermo Ochoa win the Golden Glove at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+65%)
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $69 $0 −$69 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 60 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 22 $9 +$2 +20%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $66 +$71 +107%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $34 −$33 -97%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1,260 +$202 +16%
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $231 −$225 -97%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $30 −$13 -44%
Will Dplus win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Jun 14 $32 −$26 -81%
Will T1 win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Jun 14 $33 −$6 -19%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $13 +$57 +442%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $33 −$33 -98%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $34 −$33 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 30 $36 −$35 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - Esports World C May 25 $34 −$34 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 22 $9 −$9 -97%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 17 $78 −$78 -100%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 15 $11 −$10 -97%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 26 $21 −$21 -100%
LoL: T1 vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 25 $22 −$21 -97%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 19 $63 −$61 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 07 $68 −$67 -98%
Will Peru win on 2026-03-28? Mar 28 $33 −$33 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Mar 28 $32 −$32 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 22 $65 −$65 -100%
Will G2 Esports win First Stand 2026? Mar 21 $90 −$90 -100%
LoL: LYON vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Group B Mar 20 $145 −$72 -50%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Mar 19 $40 −$40 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs G2 Esports - Game 3 Winner Mar 18 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs LYON (BO5) - First Stand Group B Mar 18 $160 −$160 -100%
League of Legends: KT Rolster vs. T1 Mar 18 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO1) Mar 18 $164 −$164 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Feb 28 $692 −$692 -100%
Will Dplus Kia win the LCK Cup 2026? Feb 28 $334 −$334 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Feb 22 $266 −$266 -100%
Game Handicap: DRX (-1.5) vs DN Freecs (+1.5) Feb 18 $94 −$94 -100%
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Feb 15 $69 +$420 +608%
LoL: Gen.G vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Feb 14 $138 −$138 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Cup Group Stage Feb 01 $153 −$153 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO1) Dec 07 $34 −$34 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs KT Rolster (BO1) Dec 07 $35 −$35 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs DRX (BO1) Dec 07 $92 −$92 -100%
Will Bolivia win on 2025-11-14? Nov 14 $61 −$61 -100%
Will PerfecT (Lee Seung-min) be named MVP in the 2025 League of Legend Nov 09 $38 −$38 -100%
Will KT Rolster win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 02 $3,470 −$3,469 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner Nov 02 $137 −$137 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 01 $529 +$3,401 +643%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Oct 31 $137 +$149 +108%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) Oct 29 $134 −$134 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO5) Oct 29 $734 +$137 +19%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Top Esports (BO3) Oct 17 $70 $0 -0%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Team Secret Whales (BO1) Oct 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 0¢ $50 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $50 1h
Will Jordan win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 2h
Will Jordan win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $21 2h
Will Jordan win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $32 2h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 0¢ $9 3h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $9 3h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 0¢ $9 3h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $9 3h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 0¢ $10 3h
Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $10 3h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? AND Will South Africa win on 2026-06-2 BUY 5¢ $60 4h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 0¢ $1 4h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? AND Will South Africa win on 2026-06-2 BUY 1¢ $0 2d
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $71 3d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 2¢ $62 3d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 1¢ $4 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 99¢ $137 3d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 16¢ $82 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $66 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? AND Will South Africa win on 2026-06-2 BUY 4¢ $31 4d
Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 4d
Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 4d
Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 4d
Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 4d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 2¢ $4 5d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 2¢ $2 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $34 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $688.98 · official $777.30 · 734 history records