Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:35:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcf27…f35f world 612 markets active 0h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$387 (-3%) realized −$721 · open +$87
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate48%271W / 297L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day16.4pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$868now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$387
7 days−$459
14 days−$395
30 days−$675
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$233
sports 17% −$137
other 15% −$205
crypto 11% −$40
politics 7% −$19
finance 6% +$27
tech 3% +$35
economics 2% −$62
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -49.5% -54.3% 30% 16% -44.1%
≤30d 247 -16.4% -24.3% 43% 34% -18.0%
≤90d 520 -2.4% -11.7% 51% 43% -12.7%
all 568 -3.7% -12.9% 48% 40% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 40% -13.5%
10% -21.2% 24% -21.8%
15% -28.9% 14% -29.4%
20% -35.8% 8% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$9 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$868
Realized−$721
Unrealized+$87
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses271 / 297
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions44
Markets (closed)568 / 612
History coverage102d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day16.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 44 History 568 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? No 36¢ 80¢ $30 $66 +$36 (+120%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 62¢ 94¢ $30 $46 +$16 (+53%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 56¢ 83¢ $30 $45 +$15 (+50%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No 68¢ 87¢ $30 $38 +$8 (+28%)
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 61¢ 75¢ $30 $37 +$7 (+22%)
Will Kim Farington be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? No 70¢ 83¢ $30 $36 +$6 (+20%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? No 80¢ 94¢ $30 $35 +$5 (+17%)
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? No 86¢ 97¢ $30 $34 +$4 (+13%)
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? No 75¢ 84¢ $30 $34 +$4 (+13%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? No 61¢ 68¢ $30 $34 +$4 (+12%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No 84¢ 90¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+7%)
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? No 84¢ 89¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+6%)
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? No 78¢ 80¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? No 68¢ 66¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? No 64¢ 92¢ $20 $29 +$9 (+45%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? No 74¢ 69¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-6%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? No 87¢ 94¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+9%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 67¢ 88¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+32%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 82¢ 72¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-12%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 71¢ 80¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+13%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No 85¢ 55¢ $30 $19 −$11 (-36%)
Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30? Yes 75¢ 76¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+2%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 in June? No 65¢ 39¢ $30 $18 −$12 (-40%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 68¢ 78¢ $14 $16 +$2 (+15%)
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 83¢ 88¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $40 −$23 -56%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $30 −$9 -30%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 −$18 -58%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 14 $30 −$9 -31%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? Jun 14 $30 +$4 +14%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 14 $20 −$40 -198%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 8? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4 −$9 -195%
Tucuman: Segundo Goity Zapico vs Federico Coria Jun 14 $5 −$9 -195%
Will annual inflation increase by 3.8% in April? Jun 14 $25 −$50 -198%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Maddison Inglis Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Set Handicap: Blockx (-1.5) vs Cina (+1.5) Jun 14 $20 −$40 -198%
Cattolica: Petr Nesterov vs Marco Cecchinato Jun 14 $4 −$8 -195%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? Jun 14 $5 −$9 -195%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $20 −$40 -197%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Anna Blinkova Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4 −$8 -195%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? Jun 14 $31 −$60 -196%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 11? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 14 $30 −$19 -64%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 +$16 +54%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 13 $30 +$12 +40%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 13 $30 −$19 -62%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $30 −$9 -29%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 12 $20 +$5 +26%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 12 $31 −$25 -80%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $30 +$3 +10%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 11 $50 −$5 -10%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $30 −$8 -26%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $30 −$19 -64%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 10 $30 +$6 +20%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 10 $30 +$6 +21%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jun 10 $30 −$18 -60%
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin Jun 09 $14 −$9 -63%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m Jun 09 $18 +$5 +26%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $14 −$13 -88%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $50 −$19 -37%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 07 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on June 1? Jun 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $5 $0 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 May 25-31? Jun 07 $5 $0 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? Jun 07 $5 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 12¢ $4 18m
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL No 61¢ $21 40m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 24¢ $13 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 55¢ $30 3h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 56¢ $1 4h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 56¢ $20 4h
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? SELL No 98¢ $35 7h
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $31 8h
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $30 10h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan BUY Pakistan 9¢ $4 10h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 10h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 13¢ $5 10h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? SELL No 25¢ $11 12h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $47 18h
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz SELL No 98¢ $43 23h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 30¢ $11 26h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 68¢ $14 26h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 29h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 33h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 34h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 34h
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 34h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL No 46¢ $7 35h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL No 46¢ $14 35h
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio BUY Yes 83¢ $14 40h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 65¢ $30 42h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL No 98¢ $25 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? SELL No 9¢ $6 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $867.71 · official $865.55 (match) · 1787 history records