Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T01:19:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcf2d…92ea weather 51 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (138 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$69 (+0%) realized +$24 · open +$45
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate72%28W / 11L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$1,323per market
Trades / day138.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$24,816now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 82% +$78
sports 12% +$3
other 5% +$3
politics 2% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (138 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +0.1% -9.5% 72% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 39 +0.1% -9.5% 72% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 39 +0.1% -9.5% 72% 0% -9.4%
all 39 +0.1% -9.5% 72% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover138.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% ← realistic here -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$1,088) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×4.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×11.42 per $1 lost it wins $11.42
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$24,816
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$45
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses28 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions12
Markets (closed)39 / 51
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1,323
Trades / day138.3
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 26? No 100¢ 99¢ $9,855 $9,847 −$8 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 71°F or below on June 25? No 100¢ 100¢ $5,021 $5,028 +$7 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 8°C on June 25? No 99¢ 100¢ $3,896 $3,918 +$22 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 26°C or below on June 25? No 100¢ 100¢ $3,836 $3,846 +$10 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 25? No 98¢ 100¢ $423 $431 +$8 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 12°C on June 25? No 100¢ 100¢ $429 $430 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $427 $427 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 26? No 98¢ 99¢ $314 $318 +$5 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $311 $312 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 29°C or below on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $156 $156 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 7°C on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $72 $72 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump say "Save America" during Tele-Rally? Jun 26 $1,099 +$5 +0%
Will the announcers say "Hattrick” or “Hat Trick" during the Czechia v Jun 25 $271 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on June 25? Jun 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 22°C on June 25? Jun 25 $143 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on June 25? Jun 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 25? Jun 25 $49 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 25? Jun 25 $1,044 +$1 +0%
Will the announcers say "Goal" 20+ times during the Ecuador vs Germany Jun 25 $526 +$1 +0%
Will Waymo launch in Nashville by June 30 2026? Jun 25 $3,380 +$3 +0%
Will the announcers say "Visa" during the Ecuador vs Germany FIFA Worl Jun 25 $25 $0 +0%
Will the announcers say "Champion" during the South Africa vs South Ko Jun 25 $124 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 25? Jun 25 $245 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 25? Jun 25 $195 $0 +0%
Will the announcers say "Nutmeg” or “Meg" during the Czechia vs Mexico Jun 25 $50 $0 +0%
Will the announcers say "Penalty Shootout" during the Czechia vs Mexic Jun 25 $511 +$1 +0%
Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" during the Czechia vs Mexico FIF Jun 25 $418 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on June 25? Jun 25 $344 +$1 +0%
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Czechia vs Mexico FIFA Worl Jun 25 $50 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on June 25? Jun 25 $6,228 +$18 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C or below on June 25? Jun 25 $539 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 25? Jun 25 $1,048 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on June 25? Jun 25 $4,197 +$7 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 25? Jun 25 $1,904 +$5 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 25? Jun 25 $1,401 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 25? Jun 25 $94 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 25? Jun 25 $456 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on June 25? Jun 25 $5,626 −$2 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 25? Jun 25 $194 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 24? Jun 25 $20 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 21°C on June 25? Jun 25 $215 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 25? Jun 25 $94 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 24? Jun 25 $200 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 25? Jun 25 $99 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 25? Jun 25 $164 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 25? Jun 25 $1,088 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 25? Jun 25 $1,687 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 25? Jun 25 $678 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 25? Jun 25 $309 −$2 -1%
Alien abduction at Brazil vs Scotland game in Miami? Jun 25 $5,994 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 71°F or below on June SELL No 100¢ $180 0m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 71°F or below on June SELL No 100¢ $5 1m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 71°F or below on June SELL No 100¢ $5 1m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 71°F or below on June SELL No 100¢ $258 3m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 71°F or below on June SELL No 100¢ $20 3m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $60 3m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $45 4m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 71°F or below on June SELL No 100¢ $43 4m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 71°F or below on June SELL No 100¢ $303 4m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 71°F or below on June SELL No 100¢ $50 4m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 71°F or below on June SELL No 100¢ $5 4m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $455 7m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $57 9m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $13 9m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $26 10m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 26? BUY No 98¢ $7 10m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 26? BUY No 96¢ $106 10m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 71°F or below on June SELL No 100¢ $664 10m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $5,090 11m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $69 11m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $1,771 11m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $173 11m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $1,338 11m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $961 12m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $12 14m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $414 14m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $30 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $106 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $205 2h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24,815.84 · official $24,799.20 (match) · 195 history records