Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:28:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcf2f…06be sports 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$255 (-22%) realized −$250 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%11W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$135now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$48
7 days−$48
14 days−$48
30 days−$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$247
sports 35% −$62
weather 1% −$5
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-39.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -78.5% -80.5% 0% 0% -50.6%
≤30d 16 -37.5% -43.5% 12% 12% -41.1%
≤90d 43 -33.2% -39.6% 26% 26% -37.4%
all 43 -33.2% -39.6% 26% 26% -37.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.6% 26% -37.4%
10% -45.3% 23% -43.4%
15% -50.6% 21% -48.9%
20% -55.5% 16% -53.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$16 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$135
Realized−$250
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses11 / 32
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions4
Markets (closed)43 / 47
History coverage79d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Over 42¢ 42¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-1%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No $30 $27 −$3 (-9%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? Yes $25 $24 −$1 (-4%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Over $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $2 −$2 -94%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $11 −$5 -48%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $53 −$1 -2%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $16 −$15 -94%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 Jun 19 $11 −$10 -94%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $11 −$10 -94%
Will João Pedro be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad May 27 $14 −$3 -20%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $32 −$27 -84%
Will Villarreal CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? May 24 $30 −$15 -50%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $12 +$30 +254%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $12 +$9 +75%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $12 −$3 -26%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 23 $27 −$26 -94%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 23 $4 −$1 -19%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 22°C or higher on May 25? May 23 $5 −$4 -80%
Pep Guardiola out as Manchester City manager by the end of 2026? May 21 $9 +$3 +27%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $18 +$9 +46%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? May 18 $38 −$20 -53%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $32 −$23 -71%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C or higher on May 15? May 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Deportivo Alavés vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? May 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $61 +$30 +48%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $82 +$41 +51%
Exact Score: FC Barcelona 2 - 2 Real Madrid CF? May 10 $10 −$9 -88%
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5) May 10 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $51 −$24 -47%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5 May 06 $17 +$16 +90%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5 May 06 $10 +$2 +17%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 06 $21 +$15 +73%
Will AZ win on 2026-04-09? Apr 09 $49 −$48 -98%
FC Porto vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 09 $10 +$2 +24%
Bologna FC 1909 vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $20 −$19 -92%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $20 −$18 -90%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) Apr 08 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-1.5) Apr 08 $15 +$55 +364%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $60 −$38 -63%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 07 $10 −$6 -59%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $120 −$119 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over $5 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $85 1h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 10¢ $11 4h
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? BUY Yes $5 4h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 BUY Over $2 19h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 SELL Over $6 23h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 42¢ $52 23h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 10¢ $11 24h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $53 24h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Over $16 26h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Over $5 26h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No $21 27h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 BUY Over $11 45h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 19¢ $11 46h
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? BUY Yes $21 7d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL No 18¢ $19 24d
Will João Pedro be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad SELL Yes $1 25d
Will João Pedro be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad SELL Yes $10 25d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 13¢ $16 28d
Will João Pedro be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad BUY Yes $3 28d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes $5 28d
Will Villarreal CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $15 28d
Will Villarreal CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $30 28d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 38¢ $32 28d
Will João Pedro be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad BUY Yes $3 28d
Will João Pedro be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad BUY Yes $8 28d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 98¢ $41 28d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 96¢ $20 28d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 43¢ $9 28d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 50¢ $12 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $134.74 · official $134.76 (match) · 99 history records