Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:56:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CF 0xcf31…2931 sports 1690 markets active 7h ago coverage 130d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 129d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$9 (+0%) realized +$21 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate70%1173W / 513L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day22.2pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$53
7 days−$116
14 days−$84
30 days−$84
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$140
other 26% +$58
culture 0% +$4
crypto 0% −$4
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -3.7% -12.8% 66% 61% -17.3%
≤30d 48 -2.1% -11.4% 69% 62% -14.4%
≤90d 1358 -1.4% -10.8% 70% 66% -12.0%
all 1686 -0.4% -9.8% 70% 65% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 65% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.5% 47% -19.1%
15% -26.4% 28% -26.9%
20% -33.6% 13% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized+$21
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses1173 / 513
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1686 / 1690
History coverage130d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day22.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1686 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $40 $29 −$11 (-28%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $15 $15 −$1 (-4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 56 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $95 −$94 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $76 +$19 +26%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +42%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 +$8 +165%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 +$3 +34%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$5 +54%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $24 −$10 -42%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $57 −$57 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $45 +$12 +26%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $36 +$9 +24%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $30 +$7 +23%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $23 +$7 +30%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $98 −$76 -77%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $147 −$49 -33%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $129 +$18 +14%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 +$3 +27%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $117 +$8 +7%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $94 +$23 +25%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $76 +$28 +38%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $10 −$5 -49%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $72 +$9 +13%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $10 +$5 +46%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $2 +$1 +48%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $5 +$2 +44%
Ilkley: Alicia Dudeney vs Ashlyn Krueger Jun 12 $1 $0 +13%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 12 $5 −$1 -29%
Ilkley: Lulu Sun vs Mary Stoiana Jun 12 $1 $0 +24%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $5 +$1 +13%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $2 $0 +20%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Hong Kong, China vs United Arab Emirates Jun 12 $1 $0 +20%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra Jun 12 $1 $0 +14%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $45 +$20 +43%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $10 +$4 +36%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $35 +$7 +21%
Libema Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Elise Mertens Jun 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $2 $0 +9%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $2 −$1 -40%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $20 +$4 +18%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $50 +$5 +10%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $50 +$7 +15%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $84 +$16 +19%
CF Pachuca vs. Pumas de la UNAM: O/U 1.5 May 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Real Madrid CF vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 1.5 May 14 $2 +$1 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 61¢ $95 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $95 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $76 9h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 21h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $13 21h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $13 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 24h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $5 24h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $10 24h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $14 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 41¢ $14 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 69¢ $24 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $57 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 79¢ $45 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Josh Hokit 100¢ $45 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 80¢ $36 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai SELL Mauricio Ruffy 100¢ $36 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 81¢ $30 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Bo Nickal 100¢ $30 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 76¢ $23 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 14¢ $19 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 14¢ $2 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 14¢ $1 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $98 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 50¢ $98 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $147 3d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Germany 100¢ $147 3d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 87¢ $129 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.18 · official $63.18 (match) · 3500 history records