Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:05:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcf32…814e other 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$32 (-4%) realized −$33 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate63%19W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$151now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% −$34
sports 18% −$15
crypto 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -9.1% -17.8% 63% 37% -15.3%
≤30d 30 -9.1% -17.8% 63% 37% -15.3%
≤90d 30 -9.1% -17.8% 63% 37% -15.3%
all 30 -9.1% -17.8% 63% 37% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 37% -15.3%
10% -25.6% 23% -23.4%
15% -32.8% 17% -30.8%
20% -39.4% 10% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$15 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$151
Realized−$33
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses19 / 11
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage6d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 85¢ 86¢ $150 $151 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1 $0 +5%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 −$8 -77%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $142 +$12 +8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $59 +$24 +41%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 −$2 -23%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $21 −$9 -45%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $20 +$6 +28%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$3 -65%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $71 +$7 +10%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $15 +$11 +70%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $2 $0 +20%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$3 +28%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$2 +11%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$2 +19%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $57 −$55 -96%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 −$23 -74%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +17%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 +$25 +83%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$26 -51%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 +$4 +10%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $21 −$1 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $152 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 4h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 93¢ $1 5h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 5h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 5h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $142 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $83 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 82¢ $8 15h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $51 26h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 14¢ $8 31h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 31h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $10 32h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 32h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 32h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 34h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 77¢ $18 37h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $2 37h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 26¢ $2 37h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 38h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $71 44h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes $2 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 26¢ $11 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $2 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $150.88 · official $150.88 (match) · 72 history records