Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:21:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

CF 0xcf36…20f4 sports 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 87d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$130 (+28%) realized +$166 · open −$36

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +63% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +48% what you keep after slip

Net edge+48%after slip

Net WR62%break-even

Win rate62%8W / 5L

Drawdown68%max

Avg bet$31per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Fees−$6est.

Kalshi-fit87%portable

Net worth$77now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$165

7 days+$209

14 days+$209

30 days+$209

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +62%

net ROI/market (all)+47.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	+84.1%	+66.6%	86%	86%	+69.0%
≤30d	7	+84.1%	+66.6%	86%	86%	+69.0%
≤90d	13	+63.3%	+47.7%	62%	62%	+31.4%
all	13	+63.3%	+47.7%	62%	62%	+31.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+47.7%	62%	+31.4%
10%	+33.6%	62%	+18.8%
15%	+20.7%	62%	+7.3%
20%	+8.8%	62%	-3.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 20% · top 2 38% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +45% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +63% · $-wt +45% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +39% → late +84% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$32 vs −$21 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.48 per $1 lost it wins $2.48

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage

Net worth$77

Realized+$166

Unrealized−$36

Win rate (resolved)62%

Wins / losses8 / 5

Est. fees paid−$6

Open positions2

Markets (closed)13 / 15

History coverage87d

Avg bet$31

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown68%

Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 13 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	20¢	$63	$77	+$14 (+22%)
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner	Grind Back	35¢	0¢	$50	$0	−$50 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 3 Winner	Jun 23	$51	+$42	+82%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner	Jun 23	$23	+$40	+172%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner	Jun 23	$20	+$32	+159%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof	Jun 21	$79	+$51	+64%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	Jun 20	$32	+$47	+146%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	Jun 20	$20	+$13	+64%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London	Jun 20	$16	−$16	-98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs	May 17	$43	−$42	-97%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs	May 15	$6	−$6	-98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playof	Mar 29	$20	−$20	-100%
Will Natus Vincere win Blast Open Rotterdam 2026?	Mar 29	$21	−$21	-100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs PARIVISION (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playoff	Mar 29	$5	+$30	+567%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterd	Mar 28	$7	+$5	+67%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner	BUY Grind Back	35¢	$51	1h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 3 Winner	SELL OG	100¢	$92	1h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 3 Winner	BUY OG	54¢	$51	3h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner	SELL OG	100¢	$63	3h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner	BUY OG	36¢	$23	3h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner	SELL Grind Back	100¢	$53	4h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner	BUY Grind Back	38¢	$20	5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof	SELL Team Falcons	100¢	$130	43h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof	BUY Team Falcons	60¢	$79	2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	BUY Team Falcons	40¢	$32	2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	SELL FURIA	100¢	$32	2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	BUY FURIA	60¢	$20	3d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London	BUY EDward Gaming	32¢	$16	3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$65	11d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs	BUY Team Falcons	9¢	$43	37d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs	BUY 9z	40¢	$6	39d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playof	BUY Xtreme Gaming	27¢	$10	86d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playof	BUY Xtreme Gaming	41¢	$10	86d
Will Natus Vincere win Blast Open Rotterdam 2026?	BUY Yes	18¢	$21	86d
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs PARIVISION (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playoff	BUY Xtreme Gaming	15¢	$5	86d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterd	SELL Natus Vincere	98¢	$11	86d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterd	BUY Natus Vincere	58¢	$7	86d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.29 · official $77.29 (match) · 36 history records