Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:57:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcf37…993f sports 151 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 7d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (416 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$10,700 (-17%) realized −$10,280 · open −$420
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate51%58W / 56L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$408per market
Trades / day415.6pace
Fees−$706est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$5,134now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$538
other 40% +$1,594
world 4% −$4
weather 3% +$214
tech 2% +$6
culture 1% +$72
politics 0% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (416 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 94 +28.5% +16.2% 50% 34% -3.6%
≤30d 114 +21.3% +9.7% 51% 33% -4.0%
≤90d 114 +21.3% +9.7% 51% 33% -4.0%
all 114 +21.3% +9.7% 51% 33% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover415.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +9.7% 33% -4.0%
10% ← realistic here -0.8% 23% -13.2%
15% -10.3% 21% -21.6%
20% -19.1% 14% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late +36% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
13.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$130 vs −$83 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$5,134
Realized−$10,280
Unrealized−$420
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses58 / 56
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$706
Open positions118
Markets (closed)114 / 151
History coverage8d ⚠
Avg bet$408
Trades / day415.6
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 118 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time? Yes 26¢ 37¢ $295 $427 +$132 (+45%)
Will Los Angeles FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? No 83¢ 94¢ $250 $283 +$33 (+13%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 0 Colombia? No 98¢ 100¢ $250 $255 +$5 (+2%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? No 76¢ 100¢ $187 $245 +$59 (+31%)
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? No 97¢ 99¢ $239 $244 +$5 (+2%)
Will Stripe not IPO by June 30, 2026? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $241 $242 +$2 (+1%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 1 Colombia? No 97¢ 100¢ $234 $241 +$8 (+3%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? No 81¢ 100¢ $174 $216 +$42 (+24%)
Will Columbus Crew win the 2026 MLS Cup? No 97¢ 98¢ $209 $212 +$3 (+2%)
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky New York Liberty 72¢ 100¢ $141 $196 +$55 (+39%)
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Yakult Brothers 39¢ 38¢ $196 $187 −$9 (-4%)
Will Morocco finish second in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 51¢ 52¢ $179 $183 +$4 (+2%)
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? No 98¢ 99¢ $176 $179 +$2 (+1%)
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? No 65¢ 94¢ $93 $135 +$42 (+46%)
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Phoenix Mercury 32¢ 14¢ $240 $110 −$130 (-54%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? No 63¢ 89¢ $70 $99 +$29 (+41%)
Will Brazil finish second in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 67¢ 68¢ $93 $95 +$2 (+2%)
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Yes 46¢ 50¢ $79 $85 +$6 (+8%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? No 21¢ 20¢ $87 $80 −$6 (-7%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Yes 9¢ 80¢ $9 $79 +$70 (+783%)
Will Mathilde Panot announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? No 11¢ 96¢ $9 $78 +$69 (+808%)
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Team Resilience 60¢ 62¢ $71 $74 +$3 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 18? No 82¢ 93¢ $57 $64 +$7 (+13%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? No 38¢ 38¢ $63 $63 −$1 (-1%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? No 84¢ 100¢ $51 $61 +$10 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Harry Kane: 1+ assists Jun 18 $60 +$8 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $102 +$152 +150%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $34 +$160 +465%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $24 −$19 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $13 −$3 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $89 −$49 -56%
England leading at halftime? Jun 17 $377 +$851 +226%
Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals Jun 17 $251 +$51 +20%
Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals Jun 17 $8 −$3 -38%
Croatia leading at halftime? Jun 17 $111 −$34 -31%
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals Jun 17 $249 −$244 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $438 −$102 -23%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 17 $529 −$247 -47%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $267 −$205 -77%
Declan Rice: 1+ goals Jun 17 $185 +$26 +14%
Harry Kane: 3+ goals Jun 17 $249 +$96 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 17? Jun 17 $7 +$13 +193%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 17? Jun 17 $60 +$89 +150%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 17? Jun 17 $48 +$71 +147%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $45 −$31 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 17 $685 $0 -0%
ITF Klosters: Julia Stusek vs Zoe Kaegi Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $201 −$1 -0%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $250 −$250 -100%
Spread: Egypt (-2.5) Jun 15 $195 −$14 -7%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $250 +$14 +6%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 15 $249 +$59 +24%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $250 +$97 +39%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1,873 +$26 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $55 −$36 -65%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $387 +$182 +47%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $724 +$261 +36%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $121 −$98 -81%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $360 −$40 -11%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $358 −$104 -29%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $344 +$56 +16%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $25 +$199 +809%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $297 +$789 +265%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1,057 +$127 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $326 −$29 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $157 +$7 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $317 −$6 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $11 −$9 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $122 −$38 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $78 −$19 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $117 −$5 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? BUY No 91¢ $19 3m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? SELL Yes 9¢ $5 3m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 3m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 6m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? SELL Yes 9¢ $9 8m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 10m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 24¢ $15 10m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 10m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? SELL No 76¢ $105 10m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? SELL No 76¢ $95 10m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? SELL No 73¢ $1 10m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? SELL No 73¢ $75 10m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY No 52¢ $82 10m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 3 Colombia? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 10m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? SELL No 95¢ $46 11m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? SELL No 92¢ $23 11m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? BUY No 90¢ $46 11m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? BUY No 90¢ $22 11m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 11m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? SELL No 93¢ $43 11m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? SELL Yes 10¢ $22 11m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 12m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? BUY No 90¢ $42 12m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 8¢ $9 13m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? SELL Yes 10¢ $20 13m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? SELL Yes 28¢ $4 13m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? SELL Yes 28¢ $2 13m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? SELL Yes 29¢ $2 13m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? SELL Yes 29¢ $9 14m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? SELL No 74¢ $25 14m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,133.91 · official $5,130.16 (match) · 3500 history records