Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:07:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CF
0xcf3a…1203
crypto · 18 markets active 0h ago
3.5score
+$6 +32%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$6 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses12 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day29.0
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 18 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $2 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)+16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +29.2% +16.9% 67% 61% +18.8%
≤30d 18 +29.2% +16.9% 67% 61% +18.8%
≤90d 18 +29.2% +16.9% 67% 61% +18.8%
all 18 +29.2% +16.9% 67% 61% +18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover29.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +16.9% 61% +18.8%
10% ← realistic here +5.7% 61% +7.5%
15% -4.5% 61% -2.9%
20% -13.9% 61% -12.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 30 history records